Market Commentary

Market Commentary
Oil Heads for Longest Run of Weekly Gains Since 2004 on Economy.
Oil headed for the longest run of weekly gains in more than eight years in New York before a report that may show the U.S. added jobs last month, signaling an economic recovery in the world’s biggest crude consumer. West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed, and were poised for an eighth weekly advance, the most since August 2004. U.S. employers probably added 165,000 workers last month after a 155,000 increase in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey before Labor Department data today. Prices slid for the first time in four days yesterday as separate reports showed consumer confidence slipped and jobless claims rose. Crude for March delivery was at $97.61 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures slid 45 cents to $97.49 yesterday. Prices are up 1.8 percent this week. Brent for March settlement climbed 65 cents to $115.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark grade closed at a premium of $18.06 to WTI futures.
Gold Falls Most in Four Weeks on Signs of Tame Inflation.

Gold futures posted the biggest drop in almost four weeks as U.S. inflation concerns waned, eroding demand for the metal as a hedge against rising consumer prices. A government report today showed an index of inflation tied to spending patterns was unchanged in December from November. Excluding food and energy costs, prices climbed 1.4 percent in 2012, compared with a 1.9 percent increase in the previous year. Inflation “has been running somewhat below the committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices,” the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday. “Deflation is probably a greater risk now than inflation, and the concern is that the deflationary forces may be more than central banks can handle,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Every time gold rallies, those deflationary forces keep batting it down.” Gold futures for April delivery dropped 1.2 percent to settle at $1,662 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Jan. 4. This month, the price dropped 0.8 percent, the fourth straight decline and the longest slump since May.
Copper Falls as Jobless Claims, UPS Earnings Cloud Outlook.

Copper fell for the first time this week as a jump in U.S. jobless claims and a disappointing earnings forecast by United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) signaled the recovery is making uneven progress. Filings for unemployment benefits rose 38,000 last week, the most since Nov. 10, government data showed today. Atlanta- based UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, said earnings this year will be $4.80 to $5.06 a share, below the $5.13 estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Copper rose 2.7 percent the previous three days on signs of economic growth in the U.S. and China. Copper futures for delivery in March slipped 0.5 percent to settle at $3.732 a pound on the Comex in New York, paring the monthly gain to 2.2 percent. Investors use UPS as a gauge of the economy because it handles goods as varied as auto parts and pharmaceuticals. Copper also fell as industrial production in Japan, the world’s fourth-biggest consumer, rose less in December than economists forecast. China is the largest buyer of the metal, followed by the U.S. and Germany. On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months was 0.7 percent lower at $8,165 a metric ton ($3.70 a pound). Nickel, tin, aluminum, zinc and lead also declined on the LME.

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines

Euro Rallies to Highest Since 2011 as ECB Balance Sheet Shrinks
The euro touched the highest level against the dollar in 14 months as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet contracted while the Federal Reserve said it would continue pumping money into the U.S. economy.

The 17-nation currency gained for a second week, its first back-to-back advance this year, amid data that showed Europe’s economy may be improving. The yen fell versus the dollar for a 12th straight week, the longest since at least 1971, amid bets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will pick a new central-bank governor who will boost monetary stimulus. South Korea’s won slid versus all of its major peers. The ECB meets Feb. 7 on interest rates.

The shared currency rallied 1.3 percent to $1.3640 this week in New York. It touched $1.3711, the strongest level since Nov. 14, 2011. Against the yen, the euro climbed 3.6 percent, the most since February 2012, to 126.66 and touched 126.97, the highest since April 2010.

Pound Falls Versus Euro as Data Signals Recovery Stalling
The pound declined for a fourth week against the euro, the longest streak since September, as economic reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing suggested the U.K. economic recovery is petering out.

Sterling fell to a 15-month low against the single currency as data showed economic confidence in the euro area improved in January, adding to signs the region’s debt crisis is easing. Gilts dropped for a second week before policy makers meet amid speculation they will hold their bond-buying program at 375 billion pounds ($590 billion).

“With the euro story improving, the pound is losing its safe-haven status somewhat,” said Robert Mialich, a currency strategist at UniCredit Global Research in Milan. “And it doesn’t help that the U.K. economic outlook isn’t promising. People are increasingly questioning the country’s AAA status. We expect sterling to weaken further.”

The pound depreciated 2.1 percent to 87.97 pence per euro at 5:05 p.m. in London yesterday, when it touched 87.17 pence, the weakest level since October 2011. Sterling dropped 0.4 percent to $1.5734 for a third week of declines.
A gauge of U.K. manufacturing output fell to 50.8 this month from a revised 51.2 in December, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said yesterday

TECHNICAL VIEW

TECHNICAL INSIGHT 
 USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has failed to sustain the up moves. Its “ Sell On Rise”
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2

EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown good strength. The pair can be considered Buy on declines.
Buy near 72.50 SL 72.30 TGT 72.76/73.10

GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR is in weak trend. This should be considered “Sell on Rise”
Sell near 84.50 SL 84.70 TGT 84.27/84/83.8

JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines
Canadian Dollar Falls as European Confidence Survey Jumps
The Canadian dollar fell against the euro and the majority of its most traded peers as economic confidence in the euro area improved, adding to signs that the 17-nation currency bloc may be emerging from a recession.

The Canadian currency fell against its U.S. counterpart before a Federal Reserve announcement may show commitment to monetary stimulus, according to a Bloomberg survey of 44 economists. An index of executive and consumer sentiment rose to 89.2 from a revised 87.8 in December, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the highest since June. Economists had forecast an increase to 88.2, according to the median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.2 percent to C$1.0024 per U.S. dollar at 7:57 a.m. in Toronto. One loonie buys 99.76 U.S. cents. It fell 0.5 percent to C$1.3575 per euro.

Rupee Rises to Three-Month High on Optimism Inflows Will Climb
India’s rupee rose to the highest level since October on optimism the first interest-rate cut by the central bank in nine months will spur economic growth, attracting investors.

The Reserve Bank of India lowered its benchmark repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent yesterday, and said cooling inflation will give some room to ease monetary policy further. Global funds poured $4 billion into local bonds and stocks this month through Jan. 28, boosting debt holdings to an all-time high of $33.5 billion, exchange data show. The government’s 10- year bonds yield 7.89 percent, while similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries pay 2 percent.

“We expect gradually ebbing inflationary pressures to facilitate further rate cuts in coming months, which are likely to promote greater economic growth and foreign inflows,” analysts at Barclays, including Singapore-based Nick Verdi, wrote in a report received today. “Emerging-market currencies that offer carry, such as the rupee, remain attractive against the backdrop of still-ample global liquidity.”
The rupee advanced 0.9 percent to 53.3050 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 53.2750 earlier, the strongest level since Oct. 18. The currency has risen 3.2 percent this month

TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has failed to sustain the up moves. Its “ Sell On Rise”
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2

EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Buy near 72.35 SL 72.23 TGT 72.57/72.85

GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR follows global weakness in GBPUSD. Its prudent to take any bet after watching 1st hour of trade as chances of opening with gap are very high.

JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines

India Cuts Key Rate to Spur Growth as Inflation Cools
India lowered interest rates for the first time since April and cut the amount of deposits lenders must set aside as reserves, easing policy to revive growth as inflation cools and the government curbs the budget deficit.
The Reserve Bank of India reduced the repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent. Governor Duvvuri Subbarao also cut the cash reserve ratio to 4 percent from 4.25 percent, effective Feb. 9, adding 180 billion rupees ($3.4 billion) into the banking system. Growth will be 5.5 percent in the year through March 2013, below an earlier estimate of 5.8 percent, the Reserve Bank said. That would be the slowest since 2002-2003. The prediction for benchmark inflation was cut to 6.8 percent from 7.5 percent.
Dollar Drops 2nd Day Versus Yen Before Fed Policy Meeting
The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen as investors pared expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal a change to its asset-buying program at the end of a two-day meeting tomorrow.
The U.S. currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that economists said will show confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month. South Korea’s won posted its biggest gain in more than four months, snapping a four-day drop. New Zealand’s dollar rose after a report showed the nation’s annual trade deficit narrowed. The euro slipped against all of its 16 major peers.
The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen as investors pared expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal a change to its asset-buying program at the end of a two-day meeting tomorrow.
The U.S. currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that economists said will show confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month. South Korea’s won posted its biggest gain in more than four months, snapping a four-day drop. New Zealand’s dollar rose after a report showed the nation’s annual trade deficit narrowed. The euro slipped against all of its 16 major peers.

TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013

The pair has shown strength at lower levels. Can be considered BUY on dips
Buy near 53.80 SL 53.60 TGT 54/54.25

EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Buy near 72.35 SL 72.23 TGT 72.57/72.85

GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR looks to be on pull back rally. This pair can also be considered Buy on dips.
Buy near 84.72 SL 84.55 TGT 85/85.35

JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR

CURRENCY VIEW

TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.9500 with a SL 54.1000 possible targets of 53.7500/53.6000/53.4500.

EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 71.3825 with a SL 71.4800 possible targets of 71.2000/71.1025/71.0100.
OR
Buy above 71.4800 with a SL 71.3825 possible targets of 71.6325/71.7500/72.8825.

Currency Headlines
Dollar falls before U.S consumer confidence figures.
Dollar has started falling against other markets peers before U.S consumer confidence figures which has increased the bearish bets on USD. Speculations have increased that the consumer confidence figures might disappoint the U.S investors. The dollar was little changed at $1.3458 per euro from $1.3456 in New York. It reached $1.3479 per euro on Jan. 25, the weakest level since Feb. 29, 2012. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 90.90 yen. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 122.35 per euro. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks rose 0.7 percent, the most since Jan. 18.

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines
Yen Rises as Traders Reduce Bearish Bets; Pound Drops
The yen rallied from its weakest level versus the dollar in 2 1/2 years as traders reduced bets the Japanese currency would keep falling after its recent slide.

The yen also strengthened as technical indicators signalled the declines may have been excessive. The dollar rose against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report that economists said will show U.S. durable goods orders climbed in December. The pound fell to its weakest level in 13 months versus the euro after data showed U.K. house prices stagnated in January. South Korea’s won slid amid bets the nation’s central bank will seek to weaken the currency. The yen appreciated 0.2 percent to 90.70 per dollar at 6:36 a.m. New York time, after reaching 91.26, the weakest level since June 2010. It climbed 0.3 percent to 121.95 per euro. 
Europe’s shared currency was little changed at $1.3447
Swiss Ministers Seek More Depreciation of ‘Strong’ Franc
Swiss ministers said the franc’s strength remains a concern even after its recent slide against the euro to the weakest in 20 months.

“Euphoria is misplaced” and more depreciation is needed, Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26. “The franc is still very strong.”
The Swiss National Bank imposed a ceiling of 1.20 francs to the euro in September 2011 to protect exporters as surging bond yields in Europe’s weakest economies pushed investors to seek the safest assets. The currency has since weakened as signs Europe’s debt crisis is easing sapped demand for havens.
While the franc has depreciated 3.2 percent against the euro this year, it’s still 9.1 percent stronger than the five- year average and 35 percent above an October 2007 low of 1.6828. The euro traded at 1.24588 francs at 11:16 a.m. in Zurich today.

Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann echoed Widmer-Schlumpf’s comments, telling reporters the same day that the franc still is “too strong.” He said he “hopes it will devalue further.”
The prospects for the franc are “a question of how the euro develops,” Widmer-Schlumpf said. She said she also hopes the depreciation continues.

TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USD INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
The pair remains in 53.40-54.20 range.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome

EUR INR (Jan 13– Expiry)
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome

GBP INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR is in weak trend. Let the initial dust get settle, then look to Sell on rise.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome

JPY INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR

RELIANCE ON CHART

Prices have consolidated earlier, for a long time within a Bullish Pattern, Symmetrical Triangle & have given a breakout {last month’s closing was above such breakout zone of 820}. Prices have given a breakout above another bullish pattern, Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern with Neckline breakout point above 882 level & Upward target of 215 points, from such neckline level. Script have already made high of 955 levels {decent return}, now due for correction. SO enter on retracements.
BUY on retracements when fills GAP near 903 level with Stop below its previous Support zone,
mentioned. Book Profit near resistance zones.
CMP – 920.
RESISTANCE – 926, 934, 938 SUPPORT – 903, 894, 885

BHARTIARTL WITH CHART

Prices in the previous week have given breakout above the Neckline level of Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern with Upward target of more than 100points from such level. In the current week prices have taken support of such neckline level & have risen Up. Now enter on retracements near support levels.
BUY on retracements, near Support Levels mentioned below. Use Stop below its previous Support zones. Book
Profit near resistance zones mentioned, below.
CMP – 357.
RESISTANCE – 359, 363, 384     SUPPORT – 352, 348, 345

TECHNICAL CURRENCY VIEW

Currency Headlines
Yen Gains From 2 1/2-Year Low as Stocks Drop
The yen strengthened from its weakest level against the dollar since June 2010 as Bank of Japan (8301) officials started a two-day policy meeting.

Japan’s currency has declined 5.9 percent versus the greenback in the past month on speculation the BOJ, under pressure from the government of new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will boost stimulus to lift the economy out of recession. Technical indicators signaled the yen’s drop may have been overdone and data showed traders became the least bearish on the currency in eight weeks. The Swiss franc advanced versus all but one of its 16 major peers.

“It’s hard to see what the BOJ could say tomorrow that would exceed market expectations,” said Daragh Maher, a currency strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. “It’s a natural positioning ahead of the Bank of Japan’s meeting given the yen decline.”
The yen appreciated 0.7 percent to 89.51 per dollar at 6:43 a.m. New York time after depreciating to 90.25, the weakest since June 23, 2010. Japan’s currency gained 0.8 percent to 119.07 per euro. The dollar was little changed at $1.3302 per euro and the franc advanced 0.4 percent to 1.2398 per euro.

Pound Little Changed Versus Dollar as House Prices Rise
The pound snapped a three-day decline versus the euro after a report showed U.K. house prices rose for the first time in three months in January.
Sterling was little changed against the dollar, halting a six-day slide, before a report this week that analysts said will show the U.K. economy contracted in the fourth quarter of last year, tipping it back toward recession. Rightmove Plc said asking prices advanced 0.2 percent this month after dropping 3.3 percent in December. Gilts fell before the Debt Management Office sells 1.75 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) of 4 percent bonds due 2022 tomorrow.

“We’re seeing a bit of respite for the pound today,” said Melinda Burgess, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “Although we still see weak fundamentals for sterling, we do think it will perform slightly better than the euro.”
The pound rose 0.1 percent to 83.83 pence per euro at 10:09 a.m. London time, after falling to 84.07 pence, the weakest since March 13. Sterling traded at $1.5882 after dropping to $1.5838, the lowest since Nov. 16.

TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USD INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
The pair witnesses selling pressure on rise. Thus it is prudent to Sell on Rise.
Sell 54.02 SL 54.20 TGT 53.88/53.55

EUR INR (Jan 13– Expiry)
EURUSD has shown early signs of weakness. Given weakness in USDINR, EURINR can also be Sold on rise.
Sell 71.98 SL 72.12 TGT 71.7/71.4

GBP INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR is in weak trend. Let the initial dust get settle, then initiate any trade.

JPY INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
JPYINR remains the weakest of 4 pairs. But given the very High “Beta” and it has gap Up OR Gap Down opening. Its moves are directly impacted by USDINR trend