BUY SILVER MAR @ 58380-450 SL 58280 TGT 58620-58850.CMP- 58439.
BUY USDINR FEB @ 53.30-53.37 SL 53.16 TGT 53.54-53.72. CMP- 53.37
BUY USDINR FEB @ 53.30-53.37 SL 53.16 TGT 53.54-53.72. CMP- 53.37
WELCOME
Thursday, 7 February 2013
Monday, 4 February 2013
CURRENCY INDRADAY VIEW
USD INR (FEB– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.2500 with a SL 53.4000 possible targets of 53.0000/52.9000/52.7600.
EUR INR (FEB – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.3525 with a SL 72.4500 possible targets of 72.2000/72.1025/72.0000.
OR
Buy above 72.4500 with a SL 72.3525 possible targets of 72.6025/72.7000/72.8825.
Currency Headlines
Yuan falls as PBOC cut the reference rate.
Yuan falls to the one month’s low as the People’s Bank of China cuts the reference rate on Japanese economic weakness. The People’s Bank of China lowered the yuan’s fixing by 0.07 percent to 6.2860 per dollar today, the weakest level since Jan. 7. The yuan fell 0.04 percent to 6.2294 per dollar as of 9:52 a.m. in Shanghai, prices from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System show. It touched 6.2304 per dollar, the weakest level since Jan. 7. One-month implied volatility in the Chinese currency, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.35 percent. In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the yuan dropped 0.05 percent to 6.2158 per dollar. Twelve-month non-deliverable yuan forwards slid 0.09 percent to 6.3235, and traded at 1.5 percent discount to the onshore exchange rate, the data show.
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.2500 with a SL 53.4000 possible targets of 53.0000/52.9000/52.7600.
EUR INR (FEB – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.3525 with a SL 72.4500 possible targets of 72.2000/72.1025/72.0000.
OR
Buy above 72.4500 with a SL 72.3525 possible targets of 72.6025/72.7000/72.8825.
Currency Headlines
Yuan falls as PBOC cut the reference rate.
Yuan falls to the one month’s low as the People’s Bank of China cuts the reference rate on Japanese economic weakness. The People’s Bank of China lowered the yuan’s fixing by 0.07 percent to 6.2860 per dollar today, the weakest level since Jan. 7. The yuan fell 0.04 percent to 6.2294 per dollar as of 9:52 a.m. in Shanghai, prices from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System show. It touched 6.2304 per dollar, the weakest level since Jan. 7. One-month implied volatility in the Chinese currency, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.35 percent. In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the yuan dropped 0.05 percent to 6.2158 per dollar. Twelve-month non-deliverable yuan forwards slid 0.09 percent to 6.3235, and traded at 1.5 percent discount to the onshore exchange rate, the data show.
COMMODITIES CALLS
GOLD >>>>>>Sell near 30750 SL 30820 TGT 30620/30480 OR Buy near 30480 SL 30425 TGT
30620/30750
Aluminium >>>>>>Sell near 113.5 SL 114.2 TGT 112/111 OR Buy near 111 SL 110.4 TGT 111.7/112.6
Copper>>>>>> Buy near 440.8 SL 438 TGT 443/447 OR Sell near 447 SL 450 TGT 444.7/440.8
LEAD>>>>>>Sell near 131.8 SL132.8 TGT 130.1/128.5 or Buy near 129.4 SL 128.5 TGT 130.3/131.8
NICKEL>>>>>>Buy near 985 SL 977 TGT 993/1005
CRUDE OIL>>>> Buy near 5150 SL 5120 TGT 5205 OR Sell near 5245 SL 5270 TGT 5205/5175
NATURAL GAS>> Sell near 178 SL 180.5 TGT 176/172
30620/30750
Aluminium >>>>>>Sell near 113.5 SL 114.2 TGT 112/111 OR Buy near 111 SL 110.4 TGT 111.7/112.6
Copper>>>>>> Buy near 440.8 SL 438 TGT 443/447 OR Sell near 447 SL 450 TGT 444.7/440.8
LEAD>>>>>>Sell near 131.8 SL132.8 TGT 130.1/128.5 or Buy near 129.4 SL 128.5 TGT 130.3/131.8
NICKEL>>>>>>Buy near 985 SL 977 TGT 993/1005
CRUDE OIL>>>> Buy near 5150 SL 5120 TGT 5205 OR Sell near 5245 SL 5270 TGT 5205/5175
NATURAL GAS>> Sell near 178 SL 180.5 TGT 176/172
Market Commentary
Market Commentary
Oil Heads for Longest Run of Weekly Gains Since 2004 on Economy.
Oil headed for the longest run of weekly gains in more than eight years in New York before a report that may show the U.S. added jobs last month, signaling an economic recovery in the world’s biggest crude consumer. West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed, and were poised for an eighth weekly advance, the most since August 2004. U.S. employers probably added 165,000 workers last month after a 155,000 increase in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey before Labor Department data today. Prices slid for the first time in four days yesterday as separate reports showed consumer confidence slipped and jobless claims rose. Crude for March delivery was at $97.61 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures slid 45 cents to $97.49 yesterday. Prices are up 1.8 percent this week. Brent for March settlement climbed 65 cents to $115.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark grade closed at a premium of $18.06 to WTI futures.
Gold Falls Most in Four Weeks on Signs of Tame Inflation.
Gold futures posted the biggest drop in almost four weeks as U.S. inflation concerns waned, eroding demand for the metal as a hedge against rising consumer prices. A government report today showed an index of inflation tied to spending patterns was unchanged in December from November. Excluding food and energy costs, prices climbed 1.4 percent in 2012, compared with a 1.9 percent increase in the previous year. Inflation “has been running somewhat below the committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices,” the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday. “Deflation is probably a greater risk now than inflation, and the concern is that the deflationary forces may be more than central banks can handle,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Every time gold rallies, those deflationary forces keep batting it down.” Gold futures for April delivery dropped 1.2 percent to settle at $1,662 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Jan. 4. This month, the price dropped 0.8 percent, the fourth straight decline and the longest slump since May.
Copper Falls as Jobless Claims, UPS Earnings Cloud Outlook.
Copper fell for the first time this week as a jump in U.S. jobless claims and a disappointing earnings forecast by United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) signaled the recovery is making uneven progress. Filings for unemployment benefits rose 38,000 last week, the most since Nov. 10, government data showed today. Atlanta- based UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, said earnings this year will be $4.80 to $5.06 a share, below the $5.13 estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Copper rose 2.7 percent the previous three days on signs of economic growth in the U.S. and China. Copper futures for delivery in March slipped 0.5 percent to settle at $3.732 a pound on the Comex in New York, paring the monthly gain to 2.2 percent. Investors use UPS as a gauge of the economy because it handles goods as varied as auto parts and pharmaceuticals. Copper also fell as industrial production in Japan, the world’s fourth-biggest consumer, rose less in December than economists forecast. China is the largest buyer of the metal, followed by the U.S. and Germany. On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months was 0.7 percent lower at $8,165 a metric ton ($3.70 a pound). Nickel, tin, aluminum, zinc and lead also declined on the LME.
Oil Heads for Longest Run of Weekly Gains Since 2004 on Economy.
Oil headed for the longest run of weekly gains in more than eight years in New York before a report that may show the U.S. added jobs last month, signaling an economic recovery in the world’s biggest crude consumer. West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed, and were poised for an eighth weekly advance, the most since August 2004. U.S. employers probably added 165,000 workers last month after a 155,000 increase in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey before Labor Department data today. Prices slid for the first time in four days yesterday as separate reports showed consumer confidence slipped and jobless claims rose. Crude for March delivery was at $97.61 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures slid 45 cents to $97.49 yesterday. Prices are up 1.8 percent this week. Brent for March settlement climbed 65 cents to $115.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark grade closed at a premium of $18.06 to WTI futures.
Gold Falls Most in Four Weeks on Signs of Tame Inflation.
Gold futures posted the biggest drop in almost four weeks as U.S. inflation concerns waned, eroding demand for the metal as a hedge against rising consumer prices. A government report today showed an index of inflation tied to spending patterns was unchanged in December from November. Excluding food and energy costs, prices climbed 1.4 percent in 2012, compared with a 1.9 percent increase in the previous year. Inflation “has been running somewhat below the committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices,” the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday. “Deflation is probably a greater risk now than inflation, and the concern is that the deflationary forces may be more than central banks can handle,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Every time gold rallies, those deflationary forces keep batting it down.” Gold futures for April delivery dropped 1.2 percent to settle at $1,662 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Jan. 4. This month, the price dropped 0.8 percent, the fourth straight decline and the longest slump since May.
Copper Falls as Jobless Claims, UPS Earnings Cloud Outlook.
Copper fell for the first time this week as a jump in U.S. jobless claims and a disappointing earnings forecast by United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) signaled the recovery is making uneven progress. Filings for unemployment benefits rose 38,000 last week, the most since Nov. 10, government data showed today. Atlanta- based UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, said earnings this year will be $4.80 to $5.06 a share, below the $5.13 estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Copper rose 2.7 percent the previous three days on signs of economic growth in the U.S. and China. Copper futures for delivery in March slipped 0.5 percent to settle at $3.732 a pound on the Comex in New York, paring the monthly gain to 2.2 percent. Investors use UPS as a gauge of the economy because it handles goods as varied as auto parts and pharmaceuticals. Copper also fell as industrial production in Japan, the world’s fourth-biggest consumer, rose less in December than economists forecast. China is the largest buyer of the metal, followed by the U.S. and Germany. On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months was 0.7 percent lower at $8,165 a metric ton ($3.70 a pound). Nickel, tin, aluminum, zinc and lead also declined on the LME.
Currency Headlines
Currency Headlines
Euro Rallies to Highest Since 2011 as ECB Balance Sheet Shrinks
The euro touched the highest level against the dollar in 14 months as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet contracted while the Federal Reserve said it would continue pumping money into the U.S. economy.
The 17-nation currency gained for a second week, its first back-to-back advance this year, amid data that showed Europe’s economy may be improving. The yen fell versus the dollar for a 12th straight week, the longest since at least 1971, amid bets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will pick a new central-bank governor who will boost monetary stimulus. South Korea’s won slid versus all of its major peers. The ECB meets Feb. 7 on interest rates.
The shared currency rallied 1.3 percent to $1.3640 this week in New York. It touched $1.3711, the strongest level since Nov. 14, 2011. Against the yen, the euro climbed 3.6 percent, the most since February 2012, to 126.66 and touched 126.97, the highest since April 2010.
Pound Falls Versus Euro as Data Signals Recovery Stalling
The pound declined for a fourth week against the euro, the longest streak since September, as economic reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing suggested the U.K. economic recovery is petering out.
Sterling fell to a 15-month low against the single currency as data showed economic confidence in the euro area improved in January, adding to signs the region’s debt crisis is easing. Gilts dropped for a second week before policy makers meet amid speculation they will hold their bond-buying program at 375 billion pounds ($590 billion).
“With the euro story improving, the pound is losing its safe-haven status somewhat,” said Robert Mialich, a currency strategist at UniCredit Global Research in Milan. “And it doesn’t help that the U.K. economic outlook isn’t promising. People are increasingly questioning the country’s AAA status. We expect sterling to weaken further.”
The pound depreciated 2.1 percent to 87.97 pence per euro at 5:05 p.m. in London yesterday, when it touched 87.17 pence, the weakest level since October 2011. Sterling dropped 0.4 percent to $1.5734 for a third week of declines.
A gauge of U.K. manufacturing output fell to 50.8 this month from a revised 51.2 in December, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said yesterday
Euro Rallies to Highest Since 2011 as ECB Balance Sheet Shrinks
The euro touched the highest level against the dollar in 14 months as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet contracted while the Federal Reserve said it would continue pumping money into the U.S. economy.
The 17-nation currency gained for a second week, its first back-to-back advance this year, amid data that showed Europe’s economy may be improving. The yen fell versus the dollar for a 12th straight week, the longest since at least 1971, amid bets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will pick a new central-bank governor who will boost monetary stimulus. South Korea’s won slid versus all of its major peers. The ECB meets Feb. 7 on interest rates.
The shared currency rallied 1.3 percent to $1.3640 this week in New York. It touched $1.3711, the strongest level since Nov. 14, 2011. Against the yen, the euro climbed 3.6 percent, the most since February 2012, to 126.66 and touched 126.97, the highest since April 2010.
Pound Falls Versus Euro as Data Signals Recovery Stalling
The pound declined for a fourth week against the euro, the longest streak since September, as economic reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing suggested the U.K. economic recovery is petering out.
Sterling fell to a 15-month low against the single currency as data showed economic confidence in the euro area improved in January, adding to signs the region’s debt crisis is easing. Gilts dropped for a second week before policy makers meet amid speculation they will hold their bond-buying program at 375 billion pounds ($590 billion).
“With the euro story improving, the pound is losing its safe-haven status somewhat,” said Robert Mialich, a currency strategist at UniCredit Global Research in Milan. “And it doesn’t help that the U.K. economic outlook isn’t promising. People are increasingly questioning the country’s AAA status. We expect sterling to weaken further.”
The pound depreciated 2.1 percent to 87.97 pence per euro at 5:05 p.m. in London yesterday, when it touched 87.17 pence, the weakest level since October 2011. Sterling dropped 0.4 percent to $1.5734 for a third week of declines.
A gauge of U.K. manufacturing output fell to 50.8 this month from a revised 51.2 in December, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said yesterday
TECHNICAL VIEW
TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has failed to sustain the up moves. Its “ Sell On Rise”
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2
EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown good strength. The pair can be considered Buy on declines.
Buy near 72.50 SL 72.30 TGT 72.76/73.10
GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR is in weak trend. This should be considered “Sell on Rise”
Sell near 84.50 SL 84.70 TGT 84.27/84/83.8
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has failed to sustain the up moves. Its “ Sell On Rise”
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2
EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown good strength. The pair can be considered Buy on declines.
Buy near 72.50 SL 72.30 TGT 72.76/73.10
GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR is in weak trend. This should be considered “Sell on Rise”
Sell near 84.50 SL 84.70 TGT 84.27/84/83.8
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
Thursday, 31 January 2013
Currency Headlines
Currency Headlines
Canadian Dollar Falls as European Confidence Survey Jumps
The Canadian dollar fell against the euro and the majority of its most traded peers as economic confidence in the euro area improved, adding to signs that the 17-nation currency bloc may be emerging from a recession.
The Canadian currency fell against its U.S. counterpart before a Federal Reserve announcement may show commitment to monetary stimulus, according to a Bloomberg survey of 44 economists. An index of executive and consumer sentiment rose to 89.2 from a revised 87.8 in December, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the highest since June. Economists had forecast an increase to 88.2, according to the median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.2 percent to C$1.0024 per U.S. dollar at 7:57 a.m. in Toronto. One loonie buys 99.76 U.S. cents. It fell 0.5 percent to C$1.3575 per euro.
Rupee Rises to Three-Month High on Optimism Inflows Will Climb
India’s rupee rose to the highest level since October on optimism the first interest-rate cut by the central bank in nine months will spur economic growth, attracting investors.
The Reserve Bank of India lowered its benchmark repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent yesterday, and said cooling inflation will give some room to ease monetary policy further. Global funds poured $4 billion into local bonds and stocks this month through Jan. 28, boosting debt holdings to an all-time high of $33.5 billion, exchange data show. The government’s 10- year bonds yield 7.89 percent, while similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries pay 2 percent.
“We expect gradually ebbing inflationary pressures to facilitate further rate cuts in coming months, which are likely to promote greater economic growth and foreign inflows,” analysts at Barclays, including Singapore-based Nick Verdi, wrote in a report received today. “Emerging-market currencies that offer carry, such as the rupee, remain attractive against the backdrop of still-ample global liquidity.”
The rupee advanced 0.9 percent to 53.3050 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 53.2750 earlier, the strongest level since Oct. 18. The currency has risen 3.2 percent this month
TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has failed to sustain the up moves. Its “ Sell On Rise”
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2
EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Buy near 72.35 SL 72.23 TGT 72.57/72.85
GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR follows global weakness in GBPUSD. Its prudent to take any bet after watching 1st hour of trade as chances of opening with gap are very high.
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
Canadian Dollar Falls as European Confidence Survey Jumps
The Canadian dollar fell against the euro and the majority of its most traded peers as economic confidence in the euro area improved, adding to signs that the 17-nation currency bloc may be emerging from a recession.
The Canadian currency fell against its U.S. counterpart before a Federal Reserve announcement may show commitment to monetary stimulus, according to a Bloomberg survey of 44 economists. An index of executive and consumer sentiment rose to 89.2 from a revised 87.8 in December, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the highest since June. Economists had forecast an increase to 88.2, according to the median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.2 percent to C$1.0024 per U.S. dollar at 7:57 a.m. in Toronto. One loonie buys 99.76 U.S. cents. It fell 0.5 percent to C$1.3575 per euro.
Rupee Rises to Three-Month High on Optimism Inflows Will Climb
India’s rupee rose to the highest level since October on optimism the first interest-rate cut by the central bank in nine months will spur economic growth, attracting investors.
The Reserve Bank of India lowered its benchmark repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent yesterday, and said cooling inflation will give some room to ease monetary policy further. Global funds poured $4 billion into local bonds and stocks this month through Jan. 28, boosting debt holdings to an all-time high of $33.5 billion, exchange data show. The government’s 10- year bonds yield 7.89 percent, while similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries pay 2 percent.
“We expect gradually ebbing inflationary pressures to facilitate further rate cuts in coming months, which are likely to promote greater economic growth and foreign inflows,” analysts at Barclays, including Singapore-based Nick Verdi, wrote in a report received today. “Emerging-market currencies that offer carry, such as the rupee, remain attractive against the backdrop of still-ample global liquidity.”
The rupee advanced 0.9 percent to 53.3050 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 53.2750 earlier, the strongest level since Oct. 18. The currency has risen 3.2 percent this month
TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has failed to sustain the up moves. Its “ Sell On Rise”
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2
EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Buy near 72.35 SL 72.23 TGT 72.57/72.85
GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR follows global weakness in GBPUSD. Its prudent to take any bet after watching 1st hour of trade as chances of opening with gap are very high.
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
Wednesday, 30 January 2013
Currency Headlines
Currency Headlines
India Cuts Key Rate to Spur Growth as Inflation Cools
India lowered interest rates for the first time since April and cut the amount of deposits lenders must set aside as reserves, easing policy to revive growth as inflation cools and the government curbs the budget deficit.
The Reserve Bank of India reduced the repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent. Governor Duvvuri Subbarao also cut the cash reserve ratio to 4 percent from 4.25 percent, effective Feb. 9, adding 180 billion rupees ($3.4 billion) into the banking system. Growth will be 5.5 percent in the year through March 2013, below an earlier estimate of 5.8 percent, the Reserve Bank said. That would be the slowest since 2002-2003. The prediction for benchmark inflation was cut to 6.8 percent from 7.5 percent.
Dollar Drops 2nd Day Versus Yen Before Fed Policy Meeting
The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen as investors pared expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal a change to its asset-buying program at the end of a two-day meeting tomorrow.
The U.S. currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that economists said will show confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month. South Korea’s won posted its biggest gain in more than four months, snapping a four-day drop. New Zealand’s dollar rose after a report showed the nation’s annual trade deficit narrowed. The euro slipped against all of its 16 major peers.
The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen as investors pared expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal a change to its asset-buying program at the end of a two-day meeting tomorrow.
The U.S. currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that economists said will show confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month. South Korea’s won posted its biggest gain in more than four months, snapping a four-day drop. New Zealand’s dollar rose after a report showed the nation’s annual trade deficit narrowed. The euro slipped against all of its 16 major peers.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has shown strength at lower levels. Can be considered BUY on dips
Buy near 53.80 SL 53.60 TGT 54/54.25
EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Buy near 72.35 SL 72.23 TGT 72.57/72.85
GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR looks to be on pull back rally. This pair can also be considered Buy on dips.
Buy near 84.72 SL 84.55 TGT 85/85.35
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
India Cuts Key Rate to Spur Growth as Inflation Cools
India lowered interest rates for the first time since April and cut the amount of deposits lenders must set aside as reserves, easing policy to revive growth as inflation cools and the government curbs the budget deficit.
The Reserve Bank of India reduced the repurchase rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent. Governor Duvvuri Subbarao also cut the cash reserve ratio to 4 percent from 4.25 percent, effective Feb. 9, adding 180 billion rupees ($3.4 billion) into the banking system. Growth will be 5.5 percent in the year through March 2013, below an earlier estimate of 5.8 percent, the Reserve Bank said. That would be the slowest since 2002-2003. The prediction for benchmark inflation was cut to 6.8 percent from 7.5 percent.
Dollar Drops 2nd Day Versus Yen Before Fed Policy Meeting
The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen as investors pared expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal a change to its asset-buying program at the end of a two-day meeting tomorrow.
The U.S. currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that economists said will show confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month. South Korea’s won posted its biggest gain in more than four months, snapping a four-day drop. New Zealand’s dollar rose after a report showed the nation’s annual trade deficit narrowed. The euro slipped against all of its 16 major peers.
The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen as investors pared expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal a change to its asset-buying program at the end of a two-day meeting tomorrow.
The U.S. currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report today that economists said will show confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month. South Korea’s won posted its biggest gain in more than four months, snapping a four-day drop. New Zealand’s dollar rose after a report showed the nation’s annual trade deficit narrowed. The euro slipped against all of its 16 major peers.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has shown strength at lower levels. Can be considered BUY on dips
Buy near 53.80 SL 53.60 TGT 54/54.25
EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Buy near 72.35 SL 72.23 TGT 72.57/72.85
GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR looks to be on pull back rally. This pair can also be considered Buy on dips.
Buy near 84.72 SL 84.55 TGT 85/85.35
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
Tuesday, 29 January 2013
CURRENCY VIEW
TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.9500 with a SL 54.1000 possible targets of 53.7500/53.6000/53.4500.
EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 71.3825 with a SL 71.4800 possible targets of 71.2000/71.1025/71.0100.
OR
Buy above 71.4800 with a SL 71.3825 possible targets of 71.6325/71.7500/72.8825.
Currency Headlines
Dollar falls before U.S consumer confidence figures.
Dollar has started falling against other markets peers before U.S consumer confidence figures which has increased the bearish bets on USD. Speculations have increased that the consumer confidence figures might disappoint the U.S investors. The dollar was little changed at $1.3458 per euro from $1.3456 in New York. It reached $1.3479 per euro on Jan. 25, the weakest level since Feb. 29, 2012. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 90.90 yen. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 122.35 per euro. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks rose 0.7 percent, the most since Jan. 18.
USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.9500 with a SL 54.1000 possible targets of 53.7500/53.6000/53.4500.
EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 71.3825 with a SL 71.4800 possible targets of 71.2000/71.1025/71.0100.
OR
Buy above 71.4800 with a SL 71.3825 possible targets of 71.6325/71.7500/72.8825.
Currency Headlines
Dollar falls before U.S consumer confidence figures.
Dollar has started falling against other markets peers before U.S consumer confidence figures which has increased the bearish bets on USD. Speculations have increased that the consumer confidence figures might disappoint the U.S investors. The dollar was little changed at $1.3458 per euro from $1.3456 in New York. It reached $1.3479 per euro on Jan. 25, the weakest level since Feb. 29, 2012. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 90.90 yen. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 122.35 per euro. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks rose 0.7 percent, the most since Jan. 18.
Currency Headlines
Currency Headlines
Yen Rises as Traders Reduce Bearish Bets; Pound Drops
The yen rallied from its weakest level versus the dollar in 2 1/2 years as traders reduced bets the Japanese currency would keep falling after its recent slide.
The yen also strengthened as technical indicators signalled the declines may have been excessive. The dollar rose against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report that economists said will show U.S. durable goods orders climbed in December. The pound fell to its weakest level in 13 months versus the euro after data showed U.K. house prices stagnated in January. South Korea’s won slid amid bets the nation’s central bank will seek to weaken the currency. The yen appreciated 0.2 percent to 90.70 per dollar at 6:36 a.m. New York time, after reaching 91.26, the weakest level since June 2010. It climbed 0.3 percent to 121.95 per euro.
Europe’s shared currency was little changed at $1.3447
Swiss Ministers Seek More Depreciation of ‘Strong’ Franc
Swiss ministers said the franc’s strength remains a concern even after its recent slide against the euro to the weakest in 20 months.
“Euphoria is misplaced” and more depreciation is needed, Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26. “The franc is still very strong.”
The Swiss National Bank imposed a ceiling of 1.20 francs to the euro in September 2011 to protect exporters as surging bond yields in Europe’s weakest economies pushed investors to seek the safest assets. The currency has since weakened as signs Europe’s debt crisis is easing sapped demand for havens.
While the franc has depreciated 3.2 percent against the euro this year, it’s still 9.1 percent stronger than the five- year average and 35 percent above an October 2007 low of 1.6828. The euro traded at 1.24588 francs at 11:16 a.m. in Zurich today.
Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann echoed Widmer-Schlumpf’s comments, telling reporters the same day that the franc still is “too strong.” He said he “hopes it will devalue further.”
The prospects for the franc are “a question of how the euro develops,” Widmer-Schlumpf said. She said she also hopes the depreciation continues.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USD INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
The pair remains in 53.40-54.20 range.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome
EUR INR (Jan 13– Expiry)
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome
GBP INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR is in weak trend. Let the initial dust get settle, then look to Sell on rise.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome
JPY INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
Yen Rises as Traders Reduce Bearish Bets; Pound Drops
The yen rallied from its weakest level versus the dollar in 2 1/2 years as traders reduced bets the Japanese currency would keep falling after its recent slide.
The yen also strengthened as technical indicators signalled the declines may have been excessive. The dollar rose against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report that economists said will show U.S. durable goods orders climbed in December. The pound fell to its weakest level in 13 months versus the euro after data showed U.K. house prices stagnated in January. South Korea’s won slid amid bets the nation’s central bank will seek to weaken the currency. The yen appreciated 0.2 percent to 90.70 per dollar at 6:36 a.m. New York time, after reaching 91.26, the weakest level since June 2010. It climbed 0.3 percent to 121.95 per euro.
Europe’s shared currency was little changed at $1.3447
Swiss Ministers Seek More Depreciation of ‘Strong’ Franc
Swiss ministers said the franc’s strength remains a concern even after its recent slide against the euro to the weakest in 20 months.
“Euphoria is misplaced” and more depreciation is needed, Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26. “The franc is still very strong.”
The Swiss National Bank imposed a ceiling of 1.20 francs to the euro in September 2011 to protect exporters as surging bond yields in Europe’s weakest economies pushed investors to seek the safest assets. The currency has since weakened as signs Europe’s debt crisis is easing sapped demand for havens.
While the franc has depreciated 3.2 percent against the euro this year, it’s still 9.1 percent stronger than the five- year average and 35 percent above an October 2007 low of 1.6828. The euro traded at 1.24588 francs at 11:16 a.m. in Zurich today.
Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann echoed Widmer-Schlumpf’s comments, telling reporters the same day that the franc still is “too strong.” He said he “hopes it will devalue further.”
The prospects for the franc are “a question of how the euro develops,” Widmer-Schlumpf said. She said she also hopes the depreciation continues.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USD INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
The pair remains in 53.40-54.20 range.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome
EUR INR (Jan 13– Expiry)
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome
GBP INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR is in weak trend. Let the initial dust get settle, then look to Sell on rise.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome
JPY INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
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