Weekly view of currency

Federal Reserve has brought hope in the U.S markets as news of monetary tightening has increased the demand of their currency. Federal Reserve’s monetary withdrawal news has shaken the global economies and has initiated selling in cross countries. Indian budgetary hopes are high, government might come up with various measures to support their next year elections. Indian economic numbers have brightened which has increased the demand of Indian assets and has given support to rupee.



3rd Week, February 2013
18 Feb: Close 54.33 – U.S markets was on leave and no major events from Indian markets had ceased the volatility.

20 Feb: Close 54.17 – Less volatility and negative figures from US real estate markets has increased bearish momentum on their currency.

21 Feb: Close 54.57 – Improved consumer prices index and increased existing home sales has given support to their currency.

22 Feb: Close 54.29 – No major events for the day and technical selling in USDINR has increased the pressure on USD.

4th Week, February 2013
25 Feb: Budgetary week might increase the volume however, volatility is expected to be less on the given day hence SELL ITM Call and Put is recommended....

26 Feb: US might come up with improved consumer confidence and home sale figures hence buy some OTM puts with USDINR future…….
27 Feb: Home Sales figures from U.S might improve with increases durable goods order hence buy USDINR for the day.......

28 Feb: Budget day and Indian government might portray beautiful picture for the economy take cautious selling position in USDINR with some OTM calls or go for delta hedging(Buying OTM Puts and Calls).....
01 Mar: U.S manufacturing might fall hence buy some puts with buying USDINR future.......

POLARIS ON CHART

Prices have consolidated at two support zone level 106 & level 113 & this seems to be a historic zone too.
Today it is the third consecutive closing above 200DMA zone of 120.5 level which suggests counter seems to be maintained although Nifty closed 45points lower.
BUY on retracements till closing is above 122.5 levels with Stop below its previous Support zones. Book Profit near resistance zones mentioned, below.
CMP – 122.5.
RESISTANCE –128, 134, 143 SUPPORT –123, 120.5, 118

BRITANNIA ON CHART

but last two consecutive sessions, traded above it, taking support of such a level. This indicated
bullish in the counter with Volumes rising in last three trading sessions. Prices had maintained support of 460 levels earlier.
BUY till Closing is above 200DMA Zone of 495 level with Stop below its previous Support zone,
mentioned. Book Profit near resistance zones.
CMP – 502. RESISTANCE – 509, 519, 525 SUPPORT – 499, 494, 489

TODAY'S COMMODITIES VIEW

GOLD ------>Buy near 29690 SL 29613 TGT 29785/29871 OR Sell near 29958 SL 30045 TGT 29785/ 29700

SILVER------>Buy on dips near 53706 SL 53359 TGT 54228/54871

Aluminium-->Buy near 110.5 SL 109.8 TGT 111/112.1 
                    OR Sell near 112.7 SL 113.5   TGT 112/111

Copper------>Buy 429 SL 426 TGT 434/437
                   OR Sell near 437 SL 440 TGT 434/429 

 Lead  ------>Lead has shown good recovery, But pressure may come as it moves up.

Nickel------>There are multiple resistances 920-929. Its 200 DMA also lies at 925.

Zinc-------->Buy near 114.2 SL 113.4 TGT 115.2/115.8

Crude------>SELL on Rise near 5147 SL 5177 

Natural Gas -->NG has stiff resistance at 182.9 & strong support at 174.2,  Either side break out can result in sharp move.

Market Commentary

Market Commentary
WTI Oil Trades Near December Low as Stockpiles Gain a Fifth Week.
West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the lowest level since December after falling a second day as U.S. crude stockpiles increased for a fifth week, the longest streak of gains since May. Futures were little changed and heading for the biggest weekly drop since December. Crude inventories rose 4.1 million barrels last week, the biggest advance in three weeks, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. They were forecast to climb 2 million barrels, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts show. U.S. oil production increased to the highest since 1992, the government report showed. WTI for April delivery was at $93.02 a barrel, up 18 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:05 a.m. Sydney time. The contract slid to $92.84 yesterday, the lowest since Dec. 31. The volume of all futures traded was 70 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 3 percent this week, the most since the week ended Dec. 7. Brent for April settlement slipped $2.07 to $113.53 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark grade closed at a premium of $20.69 to WTI futures. The gap expanded to $23.18 on Feb. 8, the widest since Nov. 26. U.S. gasoline supplies decreased 2.9 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said. They were projected to fall 900,000 barrels, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts in the Bloomberg survey. Distillate inventories, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, slid 2.3 million barrels, compared with a forecast 1.8 million barrel decline.

Gold Declines to Six-Month Low on Signs of Economic Improvement.
Gold futures slid to a six-month low in the worst losing streak in more than a year as signs of economic improvement curbed demand for a protection of wealth. Silver fell to the lowest since August and platinum dropped. Gold declined for a fifth session as global equities reached the highest since June 2008. The Federal Reserve will publish minutes of its Jan. 29-30 policy meeting today and Labor Department data on producer prices today and on consumer costs tomorrow will show inflation is in check, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said. “Bullion’s safe-haven properties as well as its traditional use in inflation hedges are irrelevant at this point,” Andrey Kryuchenkov an analyst at VTB Capital in London, wrote in a report. “The market’s attention is set to turn to the Federal Open Market Committee’s January minutes.” Gold futures for April delivery fell as much as 1 percent to $1,588 an ounce, the lowest since Aug. 2, and were at $1,592.60 on the Comex in New York. A fifth straight drop would be the longest run since December 2011. U.S. markets were shut Feb. 18 for the Presidents’ Day holiday. Futures trading volume was 53 percent above the average in the past 100 days for this time of day. Gold for immediate delivery was down 0.7 percent at $1,593.30 in London.

Metals on defensive; Fed puts investors on edge.
Copper hit a 2013 bottom as demand for commodities weakened and worries grew that the U.S. central bank might scale back its program of adding liquidity to the financial markets. Spot gold recovered from the seven-month lows of the previous day on technical buying, although some traders said it could be vulnerable to further losses. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund said it experienced its largest one-day outflow in 18 months in Wednesday's selloff. The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a global commodities benchmark, fell 1.2 percent for its sharpest one-day slide since early November. Fourteen of the 19 markets tracked by the CRB fell, with wheat, crude oil and nickel prices down at least 2 percent each. Most commodities had also tumbled on Wednesday after rumors that a hedge fund was liquidating positions pushed prices below key support levels. FED'S NEW COURSE PLAYS DEEPER INTO MARKETS The U.S. Federal Reserve added to the selling pressure in gold when minutes of its January policy meeting - suggested that it might slow or stop its asset buying program before a pickup in U.S. employment becomes evident. The Fed's rethink of its bond-buying program played a broader role in market sentiment on Thursday as a ream of weak U.S. data fueled skepticism about the bullish bets that some investors had placed on the economy since the start of the year

Currency Call Update of Yesterday

Dear all,
Our yesterday call of USDINR MOVE upto12 paisa from call given price.
And
Our Euro sell call all target done, sell call given @72.11 below and made low of  71.5125


Example :---

If we do trade in just 10 lot then ------

USDINR 10 lot * 0.12 = Rs.1200/-
and 
EURO 10 lot * 0.5925 = Rs.5925/-

Total profit would be 5925+1200 = Rs.7125/-

USDINR call update of yesterday

Our yesterday call of  USDINR all target done of 54.60 call given @ 54.20

example =>>>

If we trade in 10 lot only then profit would be  54.60-54.20=0.40
                                                         
                                                                                          10 lot * 0.40
                                                                                         = Rs. 4000/-
Required Investment only Rs.26000/-

TECHNICAL Impact

TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (FEB– Expiry)
US dollar is looking strong on charts hence buying is recommended in USD.
Buy around 54.5000 with a SL 54.3500 possible targets of 54.7500/54.8500/54.9900.

EUR INR (FEB – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.1125 with a SL 72.2100 possible targets of 72.0025/71.8800/71.7600.
OR
Buy above 72.2100 with a SL 72.1125 possible targets of 72.3325/72.4325/72.5500.

Currency Headlines
Yuan falls on speculations that Fed might cut monetary stimulus.
Yuan is hovering near two months low as the speculations have increased that the Federal Reserve might cut the monetary stimulus which has increased the pressure on high yield assets. The Dollar Index rose 0.75 percent yesterday, the most since July. The People’s Bank of China cut the daily yuan fixing by 0.07 percent to 6.2846 per dollar today. The yuan weakened 0.09 percent to 6.2433 per dollar, prices from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System show. It touched 6.2454 on Feb. 19, the lowest level since Dec. 14. Spot prices are allowed to diverge a maximum 1 percent from the reference rate. Westpac expects the currency to appreciate to 6.15 by the end of June. In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the currency fell 0.1 percent to 6.2400 per dollar