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Thursday, 28 February 2013

Market Commentary of commodities

Market Commentary
WTI Oil Rises as U.S. Economic Data Exceed Forecasts
.
West
Texas
Intermediate
oil in New York rose as U.S. durable goods and housing data exceeded forecasts, signs
an economic rebound may spur fuel demand.
Futures climbed as much as 0.8 percent after data bolstered
confidence for growth in the world’s largest crude
-
consuming countr
y. U.S. crude supplies increased 1.13 million
barrels in an Energy Information Administration report, less than the 2.5 million
-
barrel gain projected in a
Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts. Stockpiles reached 377.5 million barrels, the highest level since Ju
ly.
Crude oil
for April delivery climbed 51 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $93.14 a barrel at 12:34 p.m. on the
New York Mercantile
Exchange
. The contract traded at $92.85 before the releas
e of the EIA report
in Washington. The volume of all
futures traded was 11 percent below the 100
-
day average. Prices have gained 1.4 percent this year and have
declined 4.5 percent this month.
Brent for April settlement slipped 15 cents to $1
12.56 a barrel on the London
-
based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is down 2.6 percent this month. The volume of all futures traded
was 1.9 percent lower than the 100
-
day average for this time.
The European benchmark crude was at a $19.42
premium
to WTI futures, down from $20.08 yesterday
.
Gold Heads for Longest Run of Monthly Declines Since 1997
.
Gold futures dropped, heading for the longest run of monthly declines in 16 years, as confidence that the
U.S.
economy
is recovering curbed demand for the metal as an investment hedge.
In January, an index of pending home
resales in the U.S. increased to highest since April 2010, and a measure of durable
-
goods orders climbed the most
in a year, sep
arate reports showed today. Yesterday, gold jumped the most in three months as Federal Reserve
Chairman
Ben S. Bernanke
defended monetary stimulus.
“The safe
-
haven premium is definitely falling,” V
edant
Mimani, a portfolio manager at Atyant Capital Management Ltd. in Miami, said in a telephone interview. “Also,
some people are booking profit after yesterday’s big gain.”
Gold futures for April delivery fell 0.9 percent to
$1,601.50 an ounce
on the Comex in New York. This month, the price has declined 3.6 percent, poised for the fifth
straight drop and the longest slump since January 1997.
The index of pending
-
home resales increased 4.5 percent
to 105.9, a report from the National Associa
tion of Realtors showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey
called for a 1.9 percent advance. Government data showed that orders for durable goods excluding transportation
equipment climbed 1.9 percent, exceeding all forecasts in another survey.
“In
vestors have the tendency to buy less
of the precious metal in an environment where growth is stabilizing,” analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG’s
private
-
banking unit said today in a report.
Holdings in exchange
-
traded funds backed by gold fell to a five
-
mo
nth
low of 2,530 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. This month, they have dropped 3.1
percent, the most since April 2008.
Silver futures for May delivery declined 0.8 percent to $29.095 an ounce.
Volume was 66 percent above the average
in the past 100 days for this time
.
Nickel and
Aluminium
Drop as China Manufacturing Expansion Slows
.
Nickel extended the biggest weekly drop since 2011 in London and
aluminium
fell after f
igures showed
manufacturing is expanding at the slowest pace in four months in China, the world’s largest consumer of the
metals. A
Purchasing Managers’ Index gave a preliminary reading of 50.4 for February, a statement from HSBC
Holdings Plc and Markit Ec
onomics showed today. That compared with January’s final level of 52.3. Voting 
stations close at 3 p.m. local time in Italy, where former Prime Minister
Silvio Berlusconi
has promised to overturn
tax increases if he is returned to office.
“The majority of
metal prices are continuing to show weakness,”
Daniel
Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e
-
mail today. “Besides the restraint being
exercised by market players on account of the Italian elections,” the Chinese gauge was “doubtle
ss also weighing
on sentiment,” he said. Nickel for delivery in three months slid 0.8 percent to $16,832 a metric ton by 10 a.m. on
the London Metal Exchange. Copper climbed 0.5 percent to $7,841 a ton after dropping the most since December
2011 last week
and the metal for delivery in May rose 0.3 percent to $3.562 a pound on the Comex in New York
 
 
 
.
 

Tuesday, 26 February 2013

commodities view

Gold   --> Buy near 29554 SL 29488 TGT 29660/29746

Silver  -->It should sustain above 54192 for further up side. Below  54510, the downtrend can resume

Crude Oil  -->Its in downtrend. Support near 5000. Sell near 5096 SL 5126 TGT 5033/5006

Zinc  -->Buy near 111.3 SL 110.6 TGT 112.4/113.5 OR Sell near 113.5 SL 114.3 TGT 112.4/111.9

Saturday, 23 February 2013

Weekly view of currency

Federal Reserve has brought hope in the U.S markets as news of monetary tightening has increased the demand of their currency. Federal Reserve’s monetary withdrawal news has shaken the global economies and has initiated selling in cross countries. Indian budgetary hopes are high, government might come up with various measures to support their next year elections. Indian economic numbers have brightened which has increased the demand of Indian assets and has given support to rupee.



3rd Week, February 2013
18 Feb: Close 54.33 – U.S markets was on leave and no major events from Indian markets had ceased the volatility.

20 Feb: Close 54.17 – Less volatility and negative figures from US real estate markets has increased bearish momentum on their currency.

21 Feb: Close 54.57 – Improved consumer prices index and increased existing home sales has given support to their currency.

22 Feb: Close 54.29 – No major events for the day and technical selling in USDINR has increased the pressure on USD.

4th Week, February 2013
25 Feb: Budgetary week might increase the volume however, volatility is expected to be less on the given day hence SELL ITM Call and Put is recommended....

26 Feb: US might come up with improved consumer confidence and home sale figures hence buy some OTM puts with USDINR future…….
27 Feb: Home Sales figures from U.S might improve with increases durable goods order hence buy USDINR for the day.......

28 Feb: Budget day and Indian government might portray beautiful picture for the economy take cautious selling position in USDINR with some OTM calls or go for delta hedging(Buying OTM Puts and Calls).....
01 Mar: U.S manufacturing might fall hence buy some puts with buying USDINR future.......