Market Commentary

Market Commentary

WTI Oil Futures Trade Near $90 a Barrel in New York

.

West Texas Intermediate traded near $90 a barrel, a level

it has held above so far this year, after money managers cut bets on rising prices. Futures were little changed in New York after sliding to a 10

-

week low on March 1. Net long positions in WTI dropped 1

6 percent, according to weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading

Commission. Services industries in China expanded at the slowest pace in five months in February, a survey of purchasing managers showed yesterday.

WTI for April delivery fell as much as 59 cents to $90.09 a barrel in

electronic trading on the New York

Mercantile Exchange It was at $90.80

. Prices declined 2.6 percent last week

for a second weekly drop and are down 1.1 percent this year. WTI last traded at $90 on Dec. 31 and dipped to $90.04 in intraday trading March 1.

Brent for April settlement gained 27 cents to $110.67 a barrel on the London

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based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $19.87 to WTI futures, from $19.72 on March 1. The volume of all futures traded was 16 percent below t

he 100 day average for WTI and 36 percent higher for Brent

.

Gold Swings as Investors Weigh Stimulus Against Dollar

.

Gold futures climbed for the first time in four days in New York on speculation that central banks will continue stimulus to spur economic growth. China’s services industry expanded at the slowest in five months in February, data showed yesterday, and data released last week showed manufacturing missed estimates. Physical gold demand picked up “markedly” below

$1,600 an ounce, Standard Bank Plc’s SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd. said in a report

today. The dollar was little changed near a six month high versus six counterparts before data this week forecast to show Europe’s economy contracted and as Italy edged closer to a new election.

Gold futures for April delivery rose 0.4 percent to $1,578.10 an ounce

on the Comex in New York

. Prices were little ch last week. Futures trading volume was 3 percent below the average in the past 100 days for this time of day. Gold for immediate delivery was up 0.2 percent at $1,578.94 in

London

.

Bullion rallied the past 12 years as nations from the U.S. to

China pledged more stimulus to bolster economic growth. The metal is down 5.8 percent this year and fell for afifth month in February, the longest run of declines since 1997. Investors sold the most ever from exchange

-traded products last month, and the 2,506 metric tons now held is 4.8 percent below the Dec. 20 record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Silver for May delivery rose 0.8 percent to $28.705 an ounce in New York. It’s down 5.1 percent this year and reached $27.925 on March 1, the lowest since Aug. 16. A close at $28.0808 would be a 20 percent drop from Oct. 4, the common definition of a

bear market

.

Copper Rebounds From 3

-

Month Low on Kuroda’s Pledge, U.S. Data

.

Copper gained for the first time in three days in London

after Bank of Japan governor nominee Haruhiko Kuroda

said he would do whatever it take to curb deflation and as U.S. manufacturing data beat expectations. Aluminum rose for the first time in 11 days. Copper for delivery in three months climbed as much as 0.8 percent to $7,761 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange before trading at $7,749

. The metal touched $7,652 on March 1, the lowest since Nov. 19, and dropped 1.3 percent last week.

Kuroda told a parliamentary hearing that the BOJ hasn’t bought enough assets to end deflation. U.S.

consumer confidence increased and manufacturing grew at the fastest

pace since June 2011, easing concern about the economy as $85 billion of fed

eral spending cuts were set to begin

Currency Call for Today

Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Oil Falls to 2013 Low on China, Europe Manufacturing

.

West Texas Intermediate oil slipped to the lowest level this year as manufacturing

expanded less than forecast

in China and contracted in Europe , bolstering concern that fuel demand will decline.

Futures fell 1.5 percent after data showed China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month while factory output declined in the euro area and the U.K. The factory data helped the

U.S. dollar strengthen against the British pound and the euro. Astronger dollar curbs the appeal of raw materials to investors.

“Oil is down because of the disappointing

manufacturing index data overnight, especially the Chinese number, which shows the country had the smallest of expansions,” said John Kilduff , a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York

-based hedge fund that focuses on

energy. “U.K. manufacturing has plunged into contraction, which is going to hurt demand.”

Crude oil for April delivery fell $1 37 to $90.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange

, the lowest settlement since Dec. 24 Prices dropped 2.6 percent this week.

Brent oil for April settlement dropped 98 cents, or 0.9 percent, to end the session at $110.40 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the lowest close since Jan.

15. Volume was 52 percent above the 100 day average. The European benchmark grade traded at a premium of $19.72 to WTI, up from $19.33 yesterday

 

The China numbers came in below expectations, and that implies that manufacturing and copper demand in that country aren’t going to be particularly robust for the next little while,

Bart Melek, the Toronto based head of

commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in a telephone interview. “Inventories in Europe and

Asia are rising.”Copper futures for May delivery dropped 1.3 percent to settle at $3.501 a pound

on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $3.4725, the lowest for a most active contract since Nov. 19. On the London Metal Exchange, aluminum for delivery in three months fell 1.5 percent to $1,975 a metric ton. Earlier, the price touched $1,956, the lowest since Nov. 23. The metal dropped for the 10th straight session, extending the longest slump since June.

Copper on the LME fell 1.4 percent to $7,703 a ton ($3.49 a pound). Lead, zinc and tin also dropped,

while nickel rose. In a report titled “Buying the Dip,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said today that copper will rebound as China’s imports pick up and the U.S. housing market recovers. The price may rise to $9,000 a ton in six months, the bank said.

Industrial metals and energy led commodities lower today. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI

Spot Index of 24 raw materials erased this year’s gain

 

Currency View of Today

CALL UPDATE OF CURRENCY

OUR CURRENCY CALL USDINR AND EUROINR ALL TARGET ACHIEVED 

USDINR CALL GIVEN @54.76 MADE HIGH  55.2075 OUR TGT WAS--54.98
EUROINR CALL GIVEN @71.70 MADE HIGH  71.9950 OUR TGT WAS--71.99

EXAMPLE :--->

10 LOT TRADE  IN BOTH CURRENCY.

USDINR 54.98-54.76 = 22 PAISA 

= 22*10 LOT = RS.2200/-

EUROINR 71.9850-71.70 = 28.50 PAISA

=28.50*10 LOT = RS. 2850 /-

2850+2200 =  RS.5050/-

NEED INVESTMENT OF  RS.25000/- ONLY

USD & EURO UPDATE

USDINR  Post the unexpected rise, expect very high choppiness and its prudent to wait For 1st hour then initiate a trade. BETTER to be in buy side till 54.83/89/95/98  from 54.98 selling expected.

EUROINR Impact of USDINR moves will be felt on this pair also. Wait & Watch for 1st hour Is strategy for this pair also. resistance 71.75 /71.85/71.99

COMMODITIES UPDATES

  Gold Apr'13 Below 29513 expect sharp Fall. On Upside 29699 is good resistance.

Silver Mar'13  Sell on Rise near 53672 SL 54020 TGT 53200

Aluminum MAR'13 Sell near 109.6 SL 110.4 Tgt 108.6 107.6

Copper APR'13 Buy on dips near 426 SL 423 TGT 428/433 OR Sell on Rise near 433.6 SL 436 TGT 428

Lead MAR'13 Buy on dips near 122.8 SL 122.2 TGT 124.2/125.3 OR Sell on Rise 125.9 SL 126.7 TGT 124.2

Nickel MAR'13 Sell near 917.7 SL 926 TGT 902.6/ 893.6 OR Buy near 893.6 SL 883 TGT 902.6/917.7

Zinc MAR'13  Major selling can be expected

Market Commentary

Market Commentary
Crude Fluctuates as U.S. Economy Grows Less Than Expected.
West Texas Intermediate fluctuated as the U.S. economy grew less than economists forecast in the fourth quarter and jobless claims fell last week. Prices were poised for the first monthly drop since October as gross domestic product grew at a 0.1 percent annual rate, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed. The median forecast called for a 0.5 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey. Jobless claims decreased 22,000 from a week ago, the Labor Department reported. “The GDP number is adding some negative sentiment to the market but the jobless claims number is lending some support,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The market is trying to stabilize.” WTI for April delivery fell 7 cents to $92.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 4.9 percent this month. The volume of all futures traded was 16 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Brent for April settlement gained 30 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $112.17 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 37 percent above the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude’s premium over WTI widened for the first time in three days to as much as $19.72.
Gold Demand in India Seen Rebounding After Import Tax Maintained.
Gold demand in India, the world’s biggest user, is poised to climb after the government unexpectedly refrained from raising import taxes and as prices headed for a fifth monthly decline. Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram refrained from boosting the tax from 6 percent after it was tripled in the past year to curb demand. All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, a grouping of retailers, traders and exporters, had predicted the duty to climb to 8 percent. The “status quo” on taxes is a good sign for the industry and will attract people to gold, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, chairman of the federation. India has boosted taxes from as low as 2 percent in January last year after the current-account shortfall, the broadest measure of trade, widened to an all-time high and the rupee slumped to a record. Overseas purchases dropped 11 percent last year from a record in 2011, the World Gold Council estimates. Imports probably slumped as much as 50 percent to 40 tons this month from January, Bamalwa said yesterday.
Copper Swings Between Gains and Declines Amid Lack of Demand.
Copper swung between gains and drops in London, set for a second monthly slide in three, as investors weighed better-than-expected U.S. economic figures against a lack of physical demand. Aluminium fell for a ninth session. U.S. orders for durable goods rose the most in a year in January excluding transportation and pending home sales climbed more than forecast, reports showed yesterday. Global copper usage expanded 1 percent last year, below the 10-year average of 3 percent, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. Copper stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange swelled for a fifth month. “The U.S. is not a big swing factor in base-metals demand,” said Guy Wolf, a macro strategist at Marex Spectron Group in London. “It’s much more about China. In base metals, there’s been limited physical demand all year.” Copper for delivery in three months slipped 0.1 percent to $7,862 a metric ton by 10:58 a.m. on the LME after climbing as much as 0.8 percent. Prices are down 3.7 percent this month. Copper for May delivery rose 0.1 percent to $3.572 a pound on the Comex in New York.

NIFTY UPDATE

Nifty future opened positive and traded with slight negative momentum for entire session, to finally close down by 1.81% at 5692.
Overall breadth is positive as there were 18 advances vs. 134 declines in F&O segment.
Nifty futures may trade sideways with slight negative bias in short term. Nifty future supports lies at 5665. While resistance lies at 5770.
Among major sector indices, Banknifty futures closed down by 3.76% while Cnxit futures closed down by 0.37%.
Nifty futures have witnessed rollover of 54.46%.
Maximum rollover is witnessed in stock futures like Mcleadruss, Jswsteel, Bharatforg, Nhpc and Mcdowell-N.
Put Call Ratio (Volume) is at 0.85.
Volatility index closed at 16.23 down by 6.51%.
Among Nifty options data of March series, significant buildup among put strike is seen at 5700, which may act as support.
Significant OI build up is witnessed in Nifty Feb series 5800 and 5900 call strikes.
Among Nifty Feb put options, 5600 and 5700 strike has witnessed OI buildup.
Infrastructure sector closed down by 7.7%, losses were contributed by Gmrinfra, Gvkpil, Irb and Ivrclinfra.
Power sector stocks have witnessed selling. Losses are witnessed in Adanipower, Jppower, Jswenergy, Ptc, Relinfra, Rpower and Suzlon.
Automobile, Fertilisers and Textile sector stocks witnessed maximum OI action.

STATE BANK OF INDIA

SBI seems to have found support near mentioned neckline support zone..If it continues to hold the same...it can see initial bounce up to 2125. To have a 60-70 pts additional volume action, SBI should breach 2041-2125 range. breakdown can lead to test of given support. Breakout can take it to 2180/90.