MARKETS VIEW

NOTE : IF CRUDE OIL CROSS 3935AND SUSTAIN IT WILL TOUCH 3950/65/78
TRADE AS PER GIVEN LEVELS WITH STOP LOSS.

MARKETS VIEW

Crude ends skid, as OPEC leaves production ceiling unchanged Crude futures rose steadily on Friday, halting a midweek slump as OPEC expectedly kept production levels unchanged from their current level at approximately 30 million barrels per day. Although the majority of OPEC's smaller nations have advocated for a slash in production output to boost prices, they have been overruled by Saudi Arabia which is looking to undercut U.S. shale producers by depressing prices. “The reality now is that we cannot have this $100 (a barrel) anymore. This is a fact. We have less value for our barrels,” OPEC secretary general Abdalla Salem el-Badri said at a Friday news conference. Iran, which could release a glut of crude into the global markets over the next several months if longstanding economic sanctions are lifted by Western powers, announced Friday that it is currently producing approximately 3 million bpd. In a span of only five years, Iran is optimistic it can double output to a level of 6 million bpd by 2020. An outflow of Iranian oil into the global markets is considered to be bearish for crude prices, which have been tamped down by a glut of oversupply in recent months. In the U.S., oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said that the number of oil rigs nationwide fell last week by four to 642, the lowest level since August, 2010. It marked the 26th consecutive week of weekly rig declines. Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates. (Source:: Investing.com)

Gold ticks down, as strong U.S. jobs data increases rate hike chances Gold futures ticked down on Friday extending losses from earlier this week, as optimistic U.S. jobs data increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than previously expected. Gold prices plunged early on Friday morning after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released better than expected job figures for the month of May. Last month, U.S. non-farm payrolls soared by 280,000, far exceeding analysts' low end of forecasts for a 220,000 gain. Private payrolls increased by 262,000 in May, as professional business services added 63,000 positions on the month. The labor market also added 17,000 construction positions, following a significant gain of 35,000 a month earlier. While the economy grew at a tepid pace over the last several months, Hawkish members of the Fed argued that temporary drags such as severe winter weather and a West Coast port labor dispute disproportionately restrained growth. The Labor Department also upwardly revised jobs figures for the previous two months further underscoring the Hawkish viewpoints. While the unemployment rate inched up to 5.5% in May, the Labor Force Participation rate also moved higher last month, increasing 0.1% to 62.9%. The Fed's decision to tighten monetary policy is viewed as bearish for gold. The precious metal is not attached to dividends or interest rates and struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in periods of rising rates. Separately, Federal Reserve of New York president William Dudley reiterated on Friday that the Fed will likely raise rates at some point this year. It is widely expected that the Fed could wait until September before raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate, though it has not ruled out lift-off in June. On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund suggested that the Fed should wait until the first half of 2016 for lift-off unless the U.S. economy improves dramatically over the next several months. (Source:: Investing.com)  

MCX VIEW

Crude retreats from Friday's surge, as shale production remains flat Crude futures edged down on Monday, one session after soaring amid dwindling U.S. rig counts as investors locked into profits from a surge at the end of trading last week. Energy traders also digested further indication of slowing U.S. production, as output among the nation's most productive shale formation remained flat last month. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery fell 0.07 or 0.12% to $60.23 a barrel. On Friday, WTI crude surged more than 4.5% to close above $60 a barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery dipped 0.57 or 0.87% to $64.99. Brent also soared last Friday, gaining 4.76% to near $66 a barrel. Brent wavered between a session-low of $64.26 and a high of $65.75 on a choppy day of trading. Meanwhile, the spread between the international and U.S. benchmarks of crude stood at 4.76, down from Friday's level of 5.23. On Friday, oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said the number of oil rigs in the U.S. last week dropped by 13 to 646, the lowest level since August, 2010. A week earlier, the U.S. rig count fell by one to 659 marking the slowest rate decline over the last 24 weeks. Nevertheless, the rig count is still down drastically after peaking above 1,600 last fall. The dwindling rig count provides some signals that the glut of oversupply in the global market may be on the verge of significant reduction. Last Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. crude stockpiles decreased by 2.8 million barrels for the week that ended May 22, marking the fourth consecutive week of weekly declines. Crude futures are down more than 10% since OPEC rattled markets with its decision to keep production levels constant. Energy traders await a key OPEC meeting in Vienna on Friday for further indications of supply levels in the market. OPEC is widely expected to keep production steady at over 30 million barrels per day. As U.S. crude stockpiles dangerously neared full storage capacity earlier this spring, industry observers kept a close eye on production levels at shale fields throughout the nation. Last week, U.S. crude production increased to 9.566 million. barrels per day up from a total of 9.262 for the week ending May 15. While concerns of oversupply have waned slightly, shale production remained virtually unchanged in April. At the Bakken formation in Western North Dakota, shale production increased by a modest 2,000 barrels per day in April according to figures from Bentek Energy, while production at the Eagle Ford formation in Southern Texas rose by a mere 1,000 bpd. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, surged to an intraday high of 97.76, nearing its highest level in five weeks.

commodities News -->

Crude ends April up 25%, as OPEC supply level reaches two-year high

Investing.com | Apr 30, 2015 18:18 GMT

Investing.com -- Crude futures continued its upward swing on Thursday ending the month of April on a high note, as OPEC supply leaped to its highest level in more than two years and a lower than expected U.S. weekly buildup remained in focus.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for June delivery gained 0.92 or 1.56% to 59.50 a barrel, reaching its highest level since mid-December. Texas Light Sweet futures are now on pace for their fifth consecutive weekly gain, ending April up more than 25% as concerns of oversupply slightly ease.

On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for June delivery rose 0.82 or 1.25% to settle at 66.66. The spread between the U.S. and international benchmarks of crude stood at $7.16, slightly below Wednesday's level of $7.26.

Brent also closed the month up more than 18%, as OPEC oil supply reached its highest level since November, 2012. A survey by published by Reuters on Thursday found that output increased by 70,000 barrels per day to 31.04 million barrels. Increases in production in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria boosted OPEC supply levels.

Output in Saudi Arabia fell below record levels from March, but still remained above 10 million barrels per day.

WTI crude, meanwhile, continued its move toward $60, one day after the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly supply report that crude inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels for the week that ended April 24. The buildup was far below consensus estimates of a 3.3 million barrel increase.The build pushed up current U.S. crude inventories to 490.9 million barrels, the most in at least 80 years. A week earlier, crude inventories surged by 5.3 million barrels for the week that ended April 17 -- above forecasts of a 3.2 million build.

In addition, crude inventories at the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma fell by 514,000 on the week, well below forecasts of a 400,000 gain. The decline marked the first draw at the largest crude storage facility in the U.S. since last November.

Energy investors turn their attention to Friday's weekly rig count from oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI). Last week, the number of oil rigs nationwide fell by 31 to 703 -- its lowest level since 2010. The weekly rig count has declined for 20 consecutive weeks.

WTI Crude is still down more than 43% since last June when it spiked above $105 a barrel.

Russia stocks higher at close of trade; MICEX up 1.04%

Investing.com | Apr 30, 2015 16:45 GMT

Investing.com – Russia stocks were higher after the close on Thursday, as gains in the Power, Telecoms and Manufacturing sectors led shares higher.

At the close in Moscow, the MICEX added 1.04%.

The best performers of the session on the MICEX were FSK EES (MCX:FEES), which rose 10.08% or 0.0065 points to trade at 0.0710 at the close. Meanwhile, ANK Bashneft OAO Pref (MCX:BANE_p) added 7.29% or 116.0 points to end at 1708.0 and Mostotrest (MCX:MSTT) was up 6.44% or 5.50 points to 90.90 in late trade.

The worst performers of the session were Aeroflot (MCX:AFLT), which fell 3.42% or 1.35 points to trade at 38.15 at the close. SG mechel (MCX:MTLR) declined 2.49% or 1.64 points to end at 64.30 and Rosseti ao (MCX:RSTI) was down 2.38% or 0.0128 points to 0.5260.

Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Moscow Stock Exchange by 114 to 78 and 4 ended unchanged.

The Russian VIX, which measures the implied volatility of MICEX options, was down 2.52% to 35.530.

Gold for June delivery was down 2.41% or 29.20 to $1180.80 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in June rose 0.94% or 0.55 to hit $59.13 a barrel, while the June Brent oil contract rose 0.98% or 0.65 to trade at $66.48 a barrel.

USD/RUB was up 1.11% to 51.614, while EUR/RUB rose 0.09% to 57.812.

The US Dollar Index was down 0.25% at 95.07.

Gold plunges more than $30 an ounce, amid strong U.S. jobs data

Investing.com | Apr 30, 2015 17:01 GMT

Investing.com -- Gold plunged more than $30 on Thursday dropping below $1,200 an ounce, as a raft of stronger than expected U.S. economic data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could be more hawkish than previously indicated on the timing of an interest rate hike.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery fell $30.10 or 2.49% to 1,179.90. Gold futures inched up to a session-high of $1,207.40 in European afternoon trading, before encountering a freefall just after the opening of U.S. markets. With the sell-off, gold reversed all of its gains from Monday when it soared more than 2.35% to 1,203.20.

During a volatile stretch over the last week, gold futures have ended the session up or down by at least 1.35% in four of the last seven trading days. On Thursday morning, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims for the week that ended April 25, fell by 34,000 to a 15-year low of 262,000. Analysts had forecasted a dip of 6,000 for the week. It marked the lowest level since April, 2000. The four-week average for initial claims declined by 1,250 to 283,750, slightly lower than its level a month before.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated in a rate statement that it wanted to see improvements in the labor market before it decides to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

Separately, the Institute of Supply Management said its Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose by 6.0 points for the month to 52.3, up from 46.3 in March. New orders soared 12.8 points to 55.1, its highest reading since January and largest monthly increase in more than 30 years. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 50.0 for the month of April.

U.S. personal spending, meanwhile, rose by 0.4% for the month slightly below expectations of a 0.5% gain. Analysts had forecast a 0.2% in personal spending in April.

The Fed removed all calendar references to the timing of an interest rate hike on Wednesday, opting instead to take a data-driven approach. Moving forward, the Fed said it will take into account labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations of international financial developments when it decides on the timing of a rate increase.

While the Fed previously indicated that it could raise its benchmark Federal Funds Rate from the current level of zero to 0.25% in June, it became increasing likely that the U.S. Central Bank could delay the rate hike until September or December, following weeks of soft economic data since its FOMC meeting in March.

Gold, which is not attached to dividends or interest rates, struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in periods of rising interest rates.

Elsewhere, silver for July delivery plummeted 0.674 or 4.04% to 16.032 .

Copper for July delivery, meanwhile, rose 0.077 or 2.76% to 2.876 a pound.

STATE BANK OF INDIA ON CHART

 

280 IS VERY CRUCIAL SUPPORT IF BREACHED THEN 273.65 AND 260 IF RETURN FROM SUPPORT THEN 290.73 295.55 299 302.45 313.50

NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY ALERT !!!

 

MAJOR SUPPORT 17472.01 AND MINOR SUPPORT 17674-70 IF BREACHED THEN BIG FALL MAY COME. IF SUCCESS TO HOLD SUPPORT ON CLOSING BASIS THEN ONCE SHOULD BUY FOR 100-250 POINTS

Natural gas updates

U.S. Natural Gas Storage 90B vs. 88B forecast

Investing.com - U.S. natural gas storage rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Thursday.

In a report, Energy Information Administration said that U.S. Natural Gas Storage rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 90B, from 63B in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected U.S. Natural Gas Storage to rise 88B last month.

MARKETS VIEW

Major Forex News Caution on Fed rate hike signal hits Asia FX, rupiah at 17-year low 

Most emerging Asian currencies extended their declines on Monday with investors expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to indicate this week that it would start to raise interest rates from the middle of the year. The Indonesian rupiah IDR= hit a fresh 17-year low, while sluggish exports and imports in February offset a higher-thanexpected trade surplus. South Korea's won KRW=KFTC touched a 20-month low on importers' dollar demand and as offshore funds sold the currency. The Malaysian ringgit MYR=MY stayed around a six-trough on lower oil prices. he Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to drop the word "patient" from its formal statement on the timing of its first rate increase since 2006. The removal of the word from its forward guidance is seen as an indication of the U.S. central bank's intention to raise borrowing costs soon. By contrast, many Asian central banks eased monetary policies, undermining the appeal of yields and currencies in the region. Last week, most regional units fell with South Korea and Thailand's monetary authorities unexpectedly cutting interest rates.(Fed Chair Janet) Yellen is unlikely to disappoint markets, which have much priced in the dropping of 'patient'. "It is more important what message Yellen would give after that. If she signals the Fed would weigh the timing of rate hikes further, we may see some short-covering in Asian currencies. WON The won lost as much as 0.7 percent to 1,136.6 per dollar, its weakest since July 2013. The South Korean currency pared some of its losses as exporters took the slide as an opportunity to buy on the dips for settlements. Still, investors were looking to sell the currency around 1,130 for a test of the psychological support at 1,140.The won does not have a major chart support line until 1,147.3, the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of 2009- 2014 appreciation, analysts said. The rupiah slid 0.4 percent to 13,244 per dollar, its weakest since August 1998, on dollar demand from local companies. The currency pared some of losses as the central bank was spotted intervening to support the worst-performing Asian currency so far this year, traders said. Indonesia posted a trade surplus of $738.3 million in February, higher than market expectations of $520 million, data showed earlier. The surplus came as imports slid 16.24 percent, far exceeding an expected 6.80 percent drop, and exports lost 16.02 percent.The official Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate JISDOR= , which the central bank introduced in 2013 to manage exchange rate fluctuations, was fixed at 13,237 rupiah per dollar, the weakest since the launch. (Source: Investing)

 Gold moves slightly higher, amid euro rally

 Gold future prices remained relatively stable on Monday, amid a slight rally by the euro after the currency hit record-lows last week at week’s end. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold prices for April delivery rose 1.10 or 0.10% to $1,153.50 per troy ounce. Gold prices peaked at $1,163.30, before falling to $1,149.30 in U.S. morning trading.Activity was subdued on Monday, as metal traders await the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday when the Fed could provide details on when it plans to raise interest rates. The U.S. central bank can remove a reference to remaining patient, which typically indicates that an interest rate hike could occur within the next two FOMC meetings.Gold is viewed as a safe haven for investors in periods of declining interest rates.Over the last two weeks, the U.S. dollar has skyrocketed against the euro as the start of the European Central Bank’s EUR 60 billion a month bond buying program has coincided with expectations that the Fed will raise rates. While the euro is down more than 30% against the dollar during the last 52 weeks, nearly half of the decline occurred during the previous five days of trading.On Monday, however, the euro halted its rapid decline, as it moved above 1.06 in U.S. afternoon trading. At that point, the euro gained 1.11% or 0.0114 to 1.061.The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against six major other currencies, fell slightly 0.87 or 0.86% to 99.85. Last week, the index reached a 12-year high after cracking the historic 100 barrier.Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become more expensive for purchasers in foreign markets as the dollar strengthens.Elsewhere, weaker than expected economic data in China softened gold’s rally. Fiscal income in China between January and February rose only 3.2%, below analysts’ expectations. Comparatively, the gain at the same point last year exceeded 8.5%.China is the second-largest purchaser of the precious metal in the world.Silver, meanwhile, increased 0.149 or 0.96% to 15.645 a troy ounce. Copper gained 0.24% or 0.006 to 2.67 a pound.Platinum futures plummeted 7.30 or 0.96% to 1,107.90, while palladium fell 6.60 or 0.84% to 782.10.

Buy PNB Around 166.00 TGT 173.00 SL 162.00

MARKETS VIEW

Oil prices wavered on Friday before falling in late trading amid a stronger than expected U.S. employment report. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude oil for April delivery dropped 1.02 or 1.67% to close at 59.94 a barrel. Minutes after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released employment data for the month of February in morning trading, brent crude futures edged up 0.7% at $60.90. Earlier in the session, brent crude was up roughly 1% ahead of the data. The U.S. added 295,000 jobs in February, according to BLS, more than 55,000 above forecasts for the month. Over the last three months, employment growth has reached a monthly average of 288,000, as the current unemployment rate has fallen to 5.5%. The strong economic data drove the U.S. dollar higher and exacerbated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by June. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in testimony last month before Congress that the Fed could consider an interest rate hike on a "meeting by meeting" basis if economic conditions improved and inflation moved toward its target rate of 2%. he Fed could alter its monetary policy stance when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next on Mar. 17-18. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, soared 1.36% or 1.31 to 97.71. The euro also reached an 11-year low against the dollar for the third consecutive day, dropping 1.62% or 0.178 to 1.0850. A stronger dollar affects dollar-denominated commodities like crude making it more expensive for holders of other currencies to purchase the oil futures. WTI Crude for April delivery dropped 2.86% or 1.49 to $49.27 a barrel. Prices for West Texas Intermediate, alternatively known as Texas light sweet, dropped slightly to $50.57 a barrel shortly after the release of the employment report. While employment levels were up broadly throughout the nation, the mining sector, which encompasses the energy industry, reported a decline of 9,300 jobs from the previous month. Employment in the Oil & Gas extraction subset fell by 1,100 jobs for the month of February. This comes after 1,900 jobs were lost in Oil & Gas extraction a month earlier. Prices for WTI and brent crude also dropped slightly after the oil services firm Baker & Hughes released its weekly rig count on Friday afternoon. For the week that ended Feb. 27 oil and gas rigs in the U.S. fell by 75 to 1,192. A week earlier, the rig count dropped by 43 to 1,267. Elsewhere, tensions in the Middle East remained high. In Northeast Iraq, fighting escalated after militants from the Islamic State set fire to a number of oilfields. In Libya, nearly a dozen oilfields were closed this week amid security concerns.

NG MIDNIGHT REPORT 12.42 AM

 

© Reuters. U.S. natural gas futures rally as more snow to hit Northeast

Investing.com - U.S. natural gas prices rallied sharply on Wednesday, as a blast of frigid winter weather was expected to boost near-term fuel demand.

According to weather forecasting models, the Eastern half of the U.S. was expected to see heavy snow and freezing temperatures through March 7, in what was expected to be the last major system of the winter.

At least 30 states were under winter weather alerts on Wednesday, affecting nearly 120 million Americans.

Bullish speculators are betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel. Approximately 49% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in April jumped 5.9 cents, or 2.19%, to trade at $2.772 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours, after hitting an intraday high of $2.783.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.641 per million British thermal units, the low from March 3, and resistance at $2.888, the high from February 26.

A day earlier, natural gas for delivery in April touched $2.641, the weakest level since February 10, before turning higher to end at $2.712, up 1.4 cents, or 0.52%,

Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. gas inventories to gauge the strength of demand for the heating fuel.

The Energy Information Administration's storage report slated for release on Thursday is expected to show a withdrawal of approximately 220 billion cubic feet for the week ending February 27.

The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 116 billion cubic feet, while supplies fell by 189 billion the same time last year.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.938 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 1.5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have more than made up for last winter’s unusually strong demand.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in April eased up 29 cents, or 0.57%, to trade at $50.81 a barrel, while heating oil for April delivery slumped 1.31% to trade at $1.914 per gallon.