MARKETS VIEW

NOTE : IF CRUDE OIL CROSS 3935AND SUSTAIN IT WILL TOUCH 3950/65/78
TRADE AS PER GIVEN LEVELS WITH STOP LOSS.

MARKETS VIEW

Crude ends skid, as OPEC leaves production ceiling unchanged Crude futures rose steadily on Friday, halting a midweek slump as OPEC expectedly kept production levels unchanged from their current level at approximately 30 million barrels per day. Although the majority of OPEC's smaller nations have advocated for a slash in production output to boost prices, they have been overruled by Saudi Arabia which is looking to undercut U.S. shale producers by depressing prices. “The reality now is that we cannot have this $100 (a barrel) anymore. This is a fact. We have less value for our barrels,” OPEC secretary general Abdalla Salem el-Badri said at a Friday news conference. Iran, which could release a glut of crude into the global markets over the next several months if longstanding economic sanctions are lifted by Western powers, announced Friday that it is currently producing approximately 3 million bpd. In a span of only five years, Iran is optimistic it can double output to a level of 6 million bpd by 2020. An outflow of Iranian oil into the global markets is considered to be bearish for crude prices, which have been tamped down by a glut of oversupply in recent months. In the U.S., oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said that the number of oil rigs nationwide fell last week by four to 642, the lowest level since August, 2010. It marked the 26th consecutive week of weekly rig declines. Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates. (Source:: Investing.com)

Gold ticks down, as strong U.S. jobs data increases rate hike chances Gold futures ticked down on Friday extending losses from earlier this week, as optimistic U.S. jobs data increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than previously expected. Gold prices plunged early on Friday morning after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released better than expected job figures for the month of May. Last month, U.S. non-farm payrolls soared by 280,000, far exceeding analysts' low end of forecasts for a 220,000 gain. Private payrolls increased by 262,000 in May, as professional business services added 63,000 positions on the month. The labor market also added 17,000 construction positions, following a significant gain of 35,000 a month earlier. While the economy grew at a tepid pace over the last several months, Hawkish members of the Fed argued that temporary drags such as severe winter weather and a West Coast port labor dispute disproportionately restrained growth. The Labor Department also upwardly revised jobs figures for the previous two months further underscoring the Hawkish viewpoints. While the unemployment rate inched up to 5.5% in May, the Labor Force Participation rate also moved higher last month, increasing 0.1% to 62.9%. The Fed's decision to tighten monetary policy is viewed as bearish for gold. The precious metal is not attached to dividends or interest rates and struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in periods of rising rates. Separately, Federal Reserve of New York president William Dudley reiterated on Friday that the Fed will likely raise rates at some point this year. It is widely expected that the Fed could wait until September before raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate, though it has not ruled out lift-off in June. On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund suggested that the Fed should wait until the first half of 2016 for lift-off unless the U.S. economy improves dramatically over the next several months. (Source:: Investing.com)  

MCX VIEW

Crude retreats from Friday's surge, as shale production remains flat Crude futures edged down on Monday, one session after soaring amid dwindling U.S. rig counts as investors locked into profits from a surge at the end of trading last week. Energy traders also digested further indication of slowing U.S. production, as output among the nation's most productive shale formation remained flat last month. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery fell 0.07 or 0.12% to $60.23 a barrel. On Friday, WTI crude surged more than 4.5% to close above $60 a barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery dipped 0.57 or 0.87% to $64.99. Brent also soared last Friday, gaining 4.76% to near $66 a barrel. Brent wavered between a session-low of $64.26 and a high of $65.75 on a choppy day of trading. Meanwhile, the spread between the international and U.S. benchmarks of crude stood at 4.76, down from Friday's level of 5.23. On Friday, oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said the number of oil rigs in the U.S. last week dropped by 13 to 646, the lowest level since August, 2010. A week earlier, the U.S. rig count fell by one to 659 marking the slowest rate decline over the last 24 weeks. Nevertheless, the rig count is still down drastically after peaking above 1,600 last fall. The dwindling rig count provides some signals that the glut of oversupply in the global market may be on the verge of significant reduction. Last Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. crude stockpiles decreased by 2.8 million barrels for the week that ended May 22, marking the fourth consecutive week of weekly declines. Crude futures are down more than 10% since OPEC rattled markets with its decision to keep production levels constant. Energy traders await a key OPEC meeting in Vienna on Friday for further indications of supply levels in the market. OPEC is widely expected to keep production steady at over 30 million barrels per day. As U.S. crude stockpiles dangerously neared full storage capacity earlier this spring, industry observers kept a close eye on production levels at shale fields throughout the nation. Last week, U.S. crude production increased to 9.566 million. barrels per day up from a total of 9.262 for the week ending May 15. While concerns of oversupply have waned slightly, shale production remained virtually unchanged in April. At the Bakken formation in Western North Dakota, shale production increased by a modest 2,000 barrels per day in April according to figures from Bentek Energy, while production at the Eagle Ford formation in Southern Texas rose by a mere 1,000 bpd. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, surged to an intraday high of 97.76, nearing its highest level in five weeks.

commodities News -->

Crude ends April up 25%, as OPEC supply level reaches two-year high

Investing.com | Apr 30, 2015 18:18 GMT

Investing.com -- Crude futures continued its upward swing on Thursday ending the month of April on a high note, as OPEC supply leaped to its highest level in more than two years and a lower than expected U.S. weekly buildup remained in focus.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for June delivery gained 0.92 or 1.56% to 59.50 a barrel, reaching its highest level since mid-December. Texas Light Sweet futures are now on pace for their fifth consecutive weekly gain, ending April up more than 25% as concerns of oversupply slightly ease.

On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for June delivery rose 0.82 or 1.25% to settle at 66.66. The spread between the U.S. and international benchmarks of crude stood at $7.16, slightly below Wednesday's level of $7.26.

Brent also closed the month up more than 18%, as OPEC oil supply reached its highest level since November, 2012. A survey by published by Reuters on Thursday found that output increased by 70,000 barrels per day to 31.04 million barrels. Increases in production in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria boosted OPEC supply levels.

Output in Saudi Arabia fell below record levels from March, but still remained above 10 million barrels per day.

WTI crude, meanwhile, continued its move toward $60, one day after the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly supply report that crude inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels for the week that ended April 24. The buildup was far below consensus estimates of a 3.3 million barrel increase.The build pushed up current U.S. crude inventories to 490.9 million barrels, the most in at least 80 years. A week earlier, crude inventories surged by 5.3 million barrels for the week that ended April 17 -- above forecasts of a 3.2 million build.

In addition, crude inventories at the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma fell by 514,000 on the week, well below forecasts of a 400,000 gain. The decline marked the first draw at the largest crude storage facility in the U.S. since last November.

Energy investors turn their attention to Friday's weekly rig count from oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI). Last week, the number of oil rigs nationwide fell by 31 to 703 -- its lowest level since 2010. The weekly rig count has declined for 20 consecutive weeks.

WTI Crude is still down more than 43% since last June when it spiked above $105 a barrel.

Russia stocks higher at close of trade; MICEX up 1.04%

Investing.com | Apr 30, 2015 16:45 GMT

Investing.com – Russia stocks were higher after the close on Thursday, as gains in the Power, Telecoms and Manufacturing sectors led shares higher.

At the close in Moscow, the MICEX added 1.04%.

The best performers of the session on the MICEX were FSK EES (MCX:FEES), which rose 10.08% or 0.0065 points to trade at 0.0710 at the close. Meanwhile, ANK Bashneft OAO Pref (MCX:BANE_p) added 7.29% or 116.0 points to end at 1708.0 and Mostotrest (MCX:MSTT) was up 6.44% or 5.50 points to 90.90 in late trade.

The worst performers of the session were Aeroflot (MCX:AFLT), which fell 3.42% or 1.35 points to trade at 38.15 at the close. SG mechel (MCX:MTLR) declined 2.49% or 1.64 points to end at 64.30 and Rosseti ao (MCX:RSTI) was down 2.38% or 0.0128 points to 0.5260.

Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Moscow Stock Exchange by 114 to 78 and 4 ended unchanged.

The Russian VIX, which measures the implied volatility of MICEX options, was down 2.52% to 35.530.

Gold for June delivery was down 2.41% or 29.20 to $1180.80 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in June rose 0.94% or 0.55 to hit $59.13 a barrel, while the June Brent oil contract rose 0.98% or 0.65 to trade at $66.48 a barrel.

USD/RUB was up 1.11% to 51.614, while EUR/RUB rose 0.09% to 57.812.

The US Dollar Index was down 0.25% at 95.07.

Gold plunges more than $30 an ounce, amid strong U.S. jobs data

Investing.com | Apr 30, 2015 17:01 GMT

Investing.com -- Gold plunged more than $30 on Thursday dropping below $1,200 an ounce, as a raft of stronger than expected U.S. economic data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could be more hawkish than previously indicated on the timing of an interest rate hike.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery fell $30.10 or 2.49% to 1,179.90. Gold futures inched up to a session-high of $1,207.40 in European afternoon trading, before encountering a freefall just after the opening of U.S. markets. With the sell-off, gold reversed all of its gains from Monday when it soared more than 2.35% to 1,203.20.

During a volatile stretch over the last week, gold futures have ended the session up or down by at least 1.35% in four of the last seven trading days. On Thursday morning, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims for the week that ended April 25, fell by 34,000 to a 15-year low of 262,000. Analysts had forecasted a dip of 6,000 for the week. It marked the lowest level since April, 2000. The four-week average for initial claims declined by 1,250 to 283,750, slightly lower than its level a month before.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated in a rate statement that it wanted to see improvements in the labor market before it decides to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

Separately, the Institute of Supply Management said its Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose by 6.0 points for the month to 52.3, up from 46.3 in March. New orders soared 12.8 points to 55.1, its highest reading since January and largest monthly increase in more than 30 years. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 50.0 for the month of April.

U.S. personal spending, meanwhile, rose by 0.4% for the month slightly below expectations of a 0.5% gain. Analysts had forecast a 0.2% in personal spending in April.

The Fed removed all calendar references to the timing of an interest rate hike on Wednesday, opting instead to take a data-driven approach. Moving forward, the Fed said it will take into account labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations of international financial developments when it decides on the timing of a rate increase.

While the Fed previously indicated that it could raise its benchmark Federal Funds Rate from the current level of zero to 0.25% in June, it became increasing likely that the U.S. Central Bank could delay the rate hike until September or December, following weeks of soft economic data since its FOMC meeting in March.

Gold, which is not attached to dividends or interest rates, struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in periods of rising interest rates.

Elsewhere, silver for July delivery plummeted 0.674 or 4.04% to 16.032 .

Copper for July delivery, meanwhile, rose 0.077 or 2.76% to 2.876 a pound.