CURRENCY TECHNICAL INSIGHT--17 DEC 2012

Currency Headlines 
Yen Drops for Fifth Week on Post-Election Stimulus Speculation GB£
The yen slumped for a fifth week against the dollar, the longest streak since March, before Japanese opposition leader Shinzo Abe, an advocate of unlimited monetary stimulus, is projected to win weekend elections.
The 17-nation euro gained against all of its major peers after European Union finance ministers agreed to put the European Central Bank in charge of the area’s lenders. The dollar fell against the majority of its most-traded peers as the Federal Reserve said it will buy an additional $45 billion of Treasuries a month, which may debase the currency. The Japanese currency reached an almost nine-month low as the Bank of Japan (8301) said its Tankan index for large companies fell to its lowest level since March 2010
Spanish Bonds Rise After Debt Sale, EU Agreement on Greek Aid
Spanish bonds advanced for a third week in four as borrowing costs fell at a debt sale and after European leaders signed off on the next aid tranche for Greece, stoking optimism the euro-region debt crisis is being contained.
Greece’s 10-year debt rose for a sixth week after the nation said it had reached a deal to buy back some of its sovereign securities. Similar-maturity German bunds fell as European Union leaders approved the payout of 49.1 billion euros ($64.3 billion) of loans for Greece through March and laying the groundwork for a supra-national bank supervisor, damping demand for the safest assets. Spain sold 2.02 billion euros of government debt.


TECHNICAL INSIGHT USD INR (DEC – Expiry)
US dollar seems to be in range. The opportunity can be both sides
Buy near 54.30 SL 54.15 for possible TGT of 54.50/54.70/54.95 OR Sell near 55 SL 55.20 for possible TGT of 54.80/54.60/54.30

EUR INR (DEC – Expiry)
Euro has shown strong up moves vs USD globally, it can be considered BUY against INR also.
Buy near 71.15 SL 71 possible TGT 71.34/71.50/71.67

 GBP INR (DEC – Expiry)
Pound is facing pressure at higher levels. Also supports are nearby. The opportunity can be taken both sides
Sell near 88. 35 SL 88.57 possible TGT 88.19/88.02/88.86 OR Buy near 87.69 SL of 87.55 for possible TGT 87.86/88.02/88.19/88.35 JPY INR (DEC – Expiry)


YEN INR (DEC - EXPIRY)
Yen is showing weakness BUT it is getting support at lower levels. The Currency looks "Oversold" .Thus, making it good Buy on dips chart.
Buy near 64.88 SL 64.75 possible TGT 65.02/65.19/65.35/65.53

USD INR (DEC– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 54.4600 with a SL 54.6000 possible targets of 54.3000/54.2000/54.1000.
EUR INR (DEC – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 71.3200 with a SL 71.4200 possible targets of 71.2000/71.1000/70.9900.
OR
Buy above 71.4200 with a SL 71.3200 possible targets of 71.3025/71.2000/71.1000.
Currency Headlines
Korean won is still in bullish bets on US stimulus.
Korean won is still hovering in bullish territory as Federal Reserve is willing to extend its monetary stimulus base which has given support to the high assets demand. Korean won is hovering near three months high levels enjoying the monetary easing of U.S policy makers as the demand of the high yield assets are still high. The won climbed 0.8 percent this week to 1,073.45 per dollar, the most since the week ended Sept. 14. The yield on the government’s 2.75 percent bonds due September 2017 rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point this week, to 2.99 percent, Korea Exchange Inc. prices show. The one-year interest-rate swap increased five basis points to 2.81 percent.

currency call update ----->14 dec 2012

book full profit 54.38 sell call given @ 54.47...

pfc call update of 10th dec----->14 dec 2012

PFC CALL 1ST TARGET ACHIEVED CMP 190 LOT SIZE IS 2000 CALL GIVEN IS 207 .....
34000 PROFIT IN 1 LOT

currency technical---->14 dec 2012

USD INR (DEC– Expiry)

US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 54.4600 with a SL 54.6000 possible targets of 54.3000/54.2000/54.1000.

EUR INR (DEC – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 71.3200 with a SL 71.4200 possible targets of 71.2000/71.1000/70.9900.
OR
Buy above 71.4200 with a SL 71.3200 possible targets of 71.3025/71.2000/71.1000.

Currency Headlines
Korean won is still in bullish bets on US stimulus.
Korean won is still hovering in bullish territory as Federal Reserve is willing to extend its monetary stimulus base which has given support to the high assets demand. Korean won is hovering near three months high levels enjoying the monetary easing of U.S policy makers as the demand of the high yield assets are still high. The won climbed 0.8 percent this week to 1,073.45 per dollar, the most since the week ended Sept. 14. The yield on the government’s 2.75 percent bonds due September 2017 rose six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point this week, to 2.99 percent, Korea Exchange Inc. prices show. The one-year interest-rate swap increased five basis points to 2.81 percent.

morning call update--->13 dec 2012

morning call of usdinr  target achieved made high 54.6650  and  Euro achieved 2nd target of 71.33

TECHNICAL Impact--13 dec 2012

TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (DEC– Expiry)

US dollar is looking strong on charts hence buying is recommended in USD.
Buy around 54.3000 with a SL 54.2000 possible targets of 54.5500/54.7500/54.9000.

EUR INR (DEC – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 71.0300 with a SL 71.1300 possible targets of 70.8825/70.7600/70.6600.
OR
Buy above 71.1300 with a SL 71.0300 possible targets of 71.2525/71.3300/71.4575.

Currency Headlines
Yen falls against dollar before Bank of Japan report.
Yen is hovering near nine months low as the speculations have increased that Bank of Japan might come up with pessimistic approach and can recede the demand of the safe haven currency. Japanese manufacturer might show falling manufacturing figures which can increase selling in Japanese assets. The yen touched 83.64 per dollar, the weakest since March 21, before trading at 83.56. It fetched 109.36 per euro after earlier touching 109.39, the least since April 4. Europe’s shared currency bought $1.3088 after rising 1.1 percent in the previous three days. The dollar climbed to 85.53 on April 6, 2011, the highest since September 2010.

currency headline---->12-12-12

Currency Headlines
Yuan falls on anticipation of their central bank interference.
Yuan is hovering near one week low as the speculations have increased that the Peoples Bank of China might have entered to devalue their currency. Yuan rallies were hurting exporters which might have compelled the policy makers to devalue their currency. The yuan rose as much as 0.28 percent today to 6.2277 per dollar in Shanghai, exceeding today’s reference rate of 6.2906 by the maximum 1 percent allowed by the People’s Bank of China. The currency subsequently fell to 6.2558, 0.17 percent weaker than yesterday’s closing level and the lowest it has been since Dec. 4, before closing little changed at 6.2460. In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the yuan declined 0.2 percent to 6.2245 per dollar

Won rises on U.S budget optimism.
South Korean’s won is hovering near fifteen months high as Federal Reserve might come up with another monetary easing round which might support the demand of the high yield assets. U.S policy makers might come up with approved budget from opposition which might support the demand of the riskier assets. The won rose for a third day, appreciating 0.2 percent to 1,077.50 per dollar. The currency touched 1,076.96 earlier, the strongest level since Sept. 9, 2011. The yield on South Korea’s 2.75 percent bonds due December 2015 was steady at 2.84 percent, Korea Exchange Inc. prices show. The one-year interest-rate swap was little changed at 2.80 percent.


TECHNICAL INSIGHT USD INR (DEC – Expiry)
US dollar looking weak on charts, hence selling is recommended.
Sell below 54.4200 with a SL 54.52000 possible targets of
54.3000/54.2000/55.1100.


EUR INR (DEC – Expiry)
Euro is technically strong, hence buying is recommended.
Buy above 70.6500 with a SL of 70.5700 for possible targets of 70.7800/70.9000/70.9900.

JPY INR (DEC – Expiry)
Yen looking weak on charts, hence selling is recommended.
Sell below 65.9475 with SL of 66.0400 with possible targets of 65.8000/65.7050/65.5600.

 GBP INR (DEC – Expiry)
Pound is looking weak hence selling is recommended.
Sell below 87.5500 with a SL of 87.6500 targets would be 87.4000/87.3275/88.2200.

21 dec2012 poeple thinking---->

The End of the World – What, Me Worry? (December 21, 2012)

The world will not end on December 21, 2012 or anytime soon. I think the Mayan calendar indicates the end of a very long-term cycle that has a gradual impact upon the world, just as other long-term cycles make significant but gradual changes. Increases and decreases in solar output (a long-term cycle) may create ice ages or droughts that slowly and gradually change the world.

I’m also not worried about the other “end of the world” that we continuously hear about – The Fiscal Cliff. That topic has been worked to death. But the important information is simple:

• Politicians brought the United States into our current fiscal mess, with the help of The Federal Reserve and bankers.
• We have entrusted politicians to solve the problem. Really? The same political elite who created the problems will solve them? And what is your current belief structure regarding the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy?
• We have way too much debt and far too much government spending. The supposed plan is to increase debt forever and without end (sounds like a prayer) and to marginally decrease the rate of increase in spending – and call it a spending cut. If I call a donkey a mosquito, is it really a mosquito, or just a renamed donkey? If I have a debt and spending problem and my plan is to continue spending excessively, should I expect my problem to persist or disappear? If I have a serious drinking problem, should I expect to cure it with vodka?
• So, the world is not going to end on December 21 or January 1. More of the same will beget more of the same.

But what does worry me are the actions that we, the supposedly most intelligent species on the planet, have made over the past several hundred years. Actions have consequences. Consider these actions:

Creation of Fractional Reserve Banking: This allows bankers to create money “from thin air” and loan it to businesses, individuals, and governments and collect the interest on that created money. The result is that debt increases, additional interest must be paid, and the financial services portion of the economy increases at the expense of the manufacturing economy. The paper shufflers won, and the manufacturers of useful and valuable products lost.

Creation of Central Banks: Central banks, not the free market, currently control the money supply and interest rates, enable politicians to spend excessively and government to expand more rapidly than the productive economy. Consequently, the economy becomes overburdened with debt, interest payments, and government regulations. What could go wrong?

Corporate control over the government and regulatory process: If a business owns many politicians, it can purchase the legislation and regulation it desires. The US tax code is an estimated 70,000 pages of legislation and regulations, as purchased by wealthy and powerful special interests. Intelligent action or payoff action?

Demonetization of gold and the use of unbacked paper money: When paper money is not backed by gold (silver, oil, etc.), then the total quantity of money in circulation can increase almost without limit. Hence, the purchasing value of the money decreases and prices rise. Consumer price inflation is guaranteed.

Politicians, bureaucrats, and bankers control markets and make decisions that should be left to free markets. Another writer likened that process to handing a Stradivarius to a gorilla. Freer markets do a better job of managing the economy, money supply, interest rates, prices, and production. How do we know? Ask the survivors of the hyperinflations in the last century.

The world will not end on December 21, 2012 or anytime soon. I think the Mayan calendar indicates the end of a very long-term cycle that has a gradual impact upon the world, just as other long-term cycles make significant but gradual changes. Increases and decreases in solar output (a long-term cycle) may create ice ages or droughts that slowly and gradually change the world.

I’m also not worried about the other “end of the world” that we continuously hear about – The Fiscal Cliff. That topic has been worked to death. But the important information is simple:

• Politicians brought the United States into our current fiscal mess, with the help of The Federal Reserve and bankers.
• We have entrusted politicians to solve the problem. Really? The same political elite who created the problems will solve them? And what is your current belief structure regarding the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy?
• We have way too much debt and far too much government spending. The supposed plan is to increase debt forever and without end (sounds like a prayer) and to marginally decrease the rate of increase in spending – and call it a spending cut. If I call a donkey a mosquito, is it really a mosquito, or just a renamed donkey? If I have a debt and spending problem and my plan is to continue spending excessively, should I expect my problem to persist or disappear? If I have a serious drinking problem, should I expect to cure it with vodka?
• So, the world is not going to end on December 21 or January 1. More of the same will beget more of the same.

But what does worry me are the actions that we, the supposedly most intelligent species on the planet, have made over the past several hundred years. Actions have consequences. Consider these actions:

Creation of Fractional Reserve Banking: This allows bankers to create money “from thin air” and loan it to businesses, individuals, and governments and collect the interest on that created money. The result is that debt increases, additional interest must be paid, and the financial services portion of the economy increases at the expense of the manufacturing economy. The paper shufflers won, and the manufacturers of useful and valuable products lost.

Creation of Central Banks: Central banks, not the free market, currently control the money supply and interest rates, enable politicians to spend excessively and government to expand more rapidly than the productive economy. Consequently, the economy becomes overburdened with debt, interest payments, and government regulations. What could go wrong?

Corporate control over the government and regulatory process: If a business owns many politicians, it can purchase the legislation and regulation it desires. The US tax code is an estimated 70,000 pages of legislation and regulations, as purchased by wealthy and powerful special interests. Intelligent action or payoff action?

Demonetization of gold and the use of unbacked paper money: When paper money is not backed by gold (silver, oil, etc.), then the total quantity of money in circulation can increase almost without limit. Hence, the purchasing value of the money decreases and prices rise. Consumer price inflation is guaranteed.

Politicians, bureaucrats, and bankers control markets and make decisions that should be left to free markets. Another writer likened that process to handing a Stradivarius to a gorilla. Freer markets do a better job of managing the economy, money supply, interest rates, prices, and production. How do we know? Ask the survivors of the hyperinflations in the last century.

nifty todays view---->11 dec 2012

Nifty Future tired to take Resistance of 6019
As seen in hourly chart, NF taken Resistance as 5999-6009

Down-Break Out 5948

(Suppose to break and stay below it…then NF can fall more 5898 and 5875)

Crossover – 6024

then watch , 6065-6080