TECHNICAL CURRENCY VIEW FOR INTRADAY

TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 54.0300 with a SL 54.1700 possible targets of 53.6700/53.5500/53.4300.

EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.2325 with a SL 72.3300 possible targets of 72.1200/72.1025/71.9200.
OR
Buy above 72.3300 with a SL 72.2325 possible targets of 72.4325/72.5700/72.7000.

Currency Headlines
Yen is gathering momentum before BOJ meet.
Yen is gathering momentum for an either side movement before Bank of Japan meet which might come up with strict reform to support their tumbling economy. One-week implied volatility on the dollar-yen rate, derived from option premiums, reached 16.9 percent, the highest since August 2011. It jumped 26 basis points to 16.54 percent. The yen touched 90.21 per dollar, the weakest since June 23, 2010, before trading at 89.93, 0.1 percent below the close yesterday. It sank as much as 0.4 percent to 120.71 per euro, the lowest since May 4, 2011. The European currency was at $1.3381 after climbing 0.7 percent to $1.3376.

Nifty view today-->18 jan 2013

Among Nifty options data of Jan series, maximum buildup among call strikes is witnessed at 6200 levels, which may act as resistance.
Nifty Jan 6000 Put strike witnessed short build-up.
Among Nifty Jan series options, short covering witnessed in 6000 & 6100 Call strike, while put writing is witnessed at 5800 strike.
Technology sector was up by 1.8% as stocks HCLTECH, INFY, TECHM & WIPRO witnessed long build-up.
Oil & Gas sector was up by 2.1%, long build-up witnessed in BPCL, HINDPETRO, IOC, ONGC & RELIANCE.
Automobile, Cement, Oil & Gas, Technology and Telecom sector witnessed maximum OI action.

Currency Headlines--->18 jan 2013

Currency Headlines
Euro Advances as Spain Sells Government Bonds While Yen Weakens
The euro advanced toward a 10-month high against the dollar as Spain’s borrowing costs fell at a 4.5 billion-euro ($6 billion) sale of bonds, underscoring demand for the region’s higher-yielding assets.

Europe’s shared currency climbed against all 16 of its major peers amid signs investors are returning to markets they deserted in 2012, with foreign investors buying more than 60 percent of the debt Italy sold two days ago. The yen fell after Economy Minister Akira Amari said his comments earlier this week that excessive weakening of the yen was harmful had been misinterpreted.

The euro appreciated 1.7 percent to 119.48 yen. Japan’s currency declined 1.1 percent to 89.36 per dollar.
Spain sold 2.409 billion euros of 3.75 percent 2015 notes at an average yield of 2.713 percent, down from 3.358 percent at the previous sale in December. It also auctioned securities maturing in 2018 and 2041 at lower yields.

Pound Falls to Nine-Month Low Versus Euro on Economic Outlook
The pound weakened to a nine-month low against the euro as investors favored assets in the 17- member currency region, betting the struggling U.K. economy will weigh on sterling.
Gilts fell for the first time in five days as the Debt Management Office sold 1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion) of inflation-linked securities maturing in 2029. The yield on U.K. 10-year index-linked gilts climbed from a record low. Bank of England policy makers held their target for bond purchases at 375 billion pounds last week. The central bank will publish new forecasts for growth and inflation next month that will inform their February decision.

Sterling depreciated 0.5 percent to 83.41 pence per euro at 11:44 a.m. London time, after reaching 83.46 pence, the weakest since April 3. The pound rose 0.2 percent to $1.6032, after dropping to $1.5976 yesterday, the least since Nov. 28.
The 10-year gilt yield climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.04 percent after falling to 1.98 percent yesterday, the lowest level since Jan. 3. The 1.75 percent securities maturing in September 2022 dropped 0.35, or 3.50 pounds per 1,000-pound face amount, to 97.485.

TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USD INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
USDINR has shown weakness, as the pair broke 54.55 support. Though at lower level below 54.30, buying was seen. 17 Jan low of 54.26, is crucial support.
Sell near 54.85 SL 55 TGT 54.65/54.45/54.30 OR Buy near 54.30 SL 54.15 TGT 54.45/54.65/54.85

EUR INR (Jan 13– Expiry)
EURUSD seems in strong uptrend. However, the pressure of USDINR is seen on EURINR.
Sell near 72.98 SL 73.15 TGT 72.72/72.41 OR Buy near 72.28 SL 72.09 TGT 72.52/72.86/72.98

GBP INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR saw sharp slide. Though, some recovery was seen from lower levels. It remains under performer, among Western currencies.
Sell near 87.55 SL 87.70 TGT 87.25/87.02/86.75

JPY INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
JPYINR remains the weakest of 4 pairs. But given the very High “Beta” and it has gap Up OR Gap Down opening.

currency call update of 17 jan 2013

our call of USDINR sell, all target done call given @54.80 made low 54.2675 intraday 50+++ paisa profit .

EXAMPLE :if work on 10 lot only then today's profit would be 5000 in a day.

EURO--sell call given @ 72.6175 almost all target done made low of 72.4150

EXAMPLE : if work on 10 lot only then today's profit would be 2000 in a day

TODAY'S CURRENCY SEGMENT PROFIT IS 70 PAISA

Market Commentary-->17 jan 2013

Market Commentary
Oil Rises as U.S. Inventories Unexpectedly Decrease.
Oil rose in New York on an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories as imports declined for the fourth time in five weeks and petroleum consumption increased. Prices gained as much as 1.2 percent after the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said stockpiles fell 951,000 barrels last week. They were expected to climb 2.2 million barrels, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Consumption rebounded from the lowest level since March. “The drawdown in crude oil caught the market by surprise,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Supplies are coming tighter than expected.” West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery climbed 96 cents, or 1 percent, to $94.24 a barrel at 12:01 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have climbed 2.6 percent since the beginning of the year. Volume was 16 percent above the 100-day average. Brent for February settlement, which expires today, gained 24 cents to $110.54 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The more-active March contract increased 40 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $110.03. Volume was 9.6 percent below the 100-day average.

Gold Drops From One-Week High on Demand Concern; Platinum Slides.
Gold futures retreated from a one- week high in New York amid concern that demand is easing while economic growth slows. Platinum slipped from a three-month high. Buyers of gold are holding back in anticipation of lower prices, according to Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year and predicted a second year of contraction in the euro region. “Any talk about slowing physical demand will put pressure on prices,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Overall, there is some nervousness because of slowdown worries.” Gold futures for February delivery fell 0.4 percent to $1,676.70 an ounce at 10:36 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $1,684.90 yesterday, the highest since Jan. 3. The metal rallied 7 percent last year, the 12th straight annual gain. Silver futures for March delivery declined 0.6 percent to $31.33 an ounce on the Comex. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for April delivery retreated 0.3 percent at $1,685 an ounce, heading for the biggest fall for a most-active contract since Jan. 4. Prices in New York reached a three-month high of $1,706.80 yesterday and exceeded the price of gold for the first time since March after Anglo American Platinum Ltd., the world’s biggest producer, said it will cut jobs and output.

Copper Falls to 2-Week Low After Rio’s Beats Forecasts.
Copper fell for a third day in New York on concern the euro-region debt crisis is sapping the economy in Germany, the world’s third-biggest user of the metal. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to 0.7 percent last year from 3 percent in 2011, Germany’s statistics office said today. Prices also slid after Rio Tinto Group’s production of mined copper topped analyst estimates, indicating ample supply. “Obviously it’s slightly bad news for Europe, as Germany is what’s dragging the European economy at the moment,” Christin Tuxen, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by phone today, referring to the German GDP figures. Copper for delivery in March dropped 0.4 percent to $3.621 a pound on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $3.614, the lowest level since Dec. 31. Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.5 percent to $7,964 a metric ton on

TECHNICAL VIEW ON CURRENCY

TECHNICAL VIEW--->

USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking strong on charts hence buying is recommended in USD.
Buy around 54.6000 with a SL 54.4500 possible targets of 54.8900/54.9900/55.1400.
OR
Sell AROUND 54.8025 with a SL 54.9800 possible targets of 54.5500/54.4525/54.3200.

EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.6125 with a SL 72.7100 possible targets of 72.5000/72.4025/72.2800.
OR
Buy above 72.7100 with a SL 72.6125 possible targets of 72.8225/72.9600/73.1000.

Currency Headlines
Yuan futures recover on Chinese economic strength.
Yuan might cap the recent fall as the Chinese GDP figures might given strength to their currency. Economic growth quickened to 7.8 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, from a three-year low of 7.4 percent in the previous period which might support their currency as well. The yuan was steady at 6.2174 per dollar, from yesterday’s 6.2165, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The People’s Bank of China cut the reference rate by 0.04 percent to 6.2767 per dollar today. The spot is allowed to trade as much as 1 percent on either side of the fixing. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards rose 0.14 percent to 6.2798 per dollar, a 0.99 percent discount to the onshore spot rate. The yuan climbed 0.11 percent to 6.1858 versus the greenback in the offshore market.

currency call update of 15 jan 2013

USDINR CALL GIVEN @54.60 ALMOST ALL TARGET DONE TODAY CMP 55.03
43 PAISA IN 1 DAY

HEDGING STRATEGIES

BEARISH OPTION STRATEGIES

BEAR CALL SPREAD

A Bear Call Spread is a bearish option strategy that works in the same way a Bear Put Spread does, profiting when the underlying stock drops. Establishing a Bear Call Spread involves the purchase of an Out of The Money call option on the underlying asset while simultaneously selling an In the Money or At The Money call option on the same underlying asset with the same expiration month . 

Sell ATM Call  +  Buy OTM Call

Risk / Reward of Bear Call Spread: Upside Maximum Profit is Limited , Maximum Loss is Limited 

Break Even Point of Bear Call Spread : Lower Strike + Net premium received

Bear Call Spread is a credit spread, you also make money if the underlying asset stays stagnant through the decay and expiration of the more expensive short call options.

MARKET COMMENTARY ON COMMDITIES

Market Commentary
 
Oil Trades Near Highest in Four Months on Colder Weather.
Oil traded near the highest level in almost four months in New York before reports that may show the economy recovering in the U.S. and as lower temperatures buoy demand for heating fuels. West Texas Intermediate was little changed after climbing 0.6 percent yesterday. The U.S. East Coast and Midwest will be 5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 Celsius) below normal from Jan. 19 to Jan. 23, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Retail sales probably rose for a second month in December. “Colder weather is helping the energy complex,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, who predicts WTI may remain capped at about $95.60 a barrel. “The global oil market looks evenly balanced.” Crude for February delivery was at $93.70 a barrel, down 44 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract increased to $94.14 yesterday, the highest settlement since Sept. 18. Prices dropped 7.1 percent last year.

Gold Forecasters Splitting on Peak for Bull Market.
Danske Bank A/S and Credit Suisse Group AG, the most-accurate gold forecasters, say prices will probably peak this year while their nearest rival, UniCredit SpA, sees no end in sight to the 12-year bull market. Gold will average $1,720 an ounce this year and $1,600 in 2014, said Christin Tuxen of Danske Bank in Copenhagen, who came closest to predicting moves in the past eight quarters. Tom Kendall at Credit Suisse in London expects $1,740 and $1,720 and Jochen Hitzfeld of UniCredit in Munich predicts $1,700 and $1,800. Bullion rose more than sixfold since the bull market began in 2001. All three forecast record average prices this year because central-bank stimulus will sustain buying as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Danske and Credit Suisse predict lower prices in 2014 as economic growth curbs demand for the metal as a protector of wealth while UniCredit says record- low interest rates will maintain gold’s allure.

Copper Falls to 2-Week Low After Rio’s Beats Forecasts.
Copper fell for a third day in New York on concern the euro-region debt crisis is sapping the economy in Germany, the world’s third-biggest user of the metal. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to 0.7 percent last year from 3 percent in 2011, Germany’s statistics office said today. Prices also slid after Rio Tinto Group’s production of mined copper topped analyst estimates, indicating ample supply. “Obviously it’s slightly bad news for Europe, as Germany is what’s dragging the European economy at the moment,” Christin Tuxen, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by phone today, referring to the German GDP figures. Copper for delivery in March dropped 0.4 percent to $3.621 a pound on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $3.614, the lowest level since Dec. 31. Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.5 percent to $7,964 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. “Metal markets will be much more focused on what comes out of China” this week, Tuxen said. Figures due Jan. 18 may show GDP growth strengthened in the fourth quarter and industrial production was little changed last month in the country, the world’s biggest copper consumer, according to analysts.

NIFTY VIEW-->16 JAN 2013

Among Nifty options data of Jan series, maximum buildup among call strikes is witnessed at 6200 levels, which may act as resistance.
Call writing is witnessed at Nifty 6300 strike of Jan series.
Among Nifty put options, OI build up is witnessed at 6000 strike, while put writing is witnessed at 5800 and 5900 strike.
Telecom sector stocks witnessed long build up, major OI build up is seen in Bhartiartl, Idea and Rcom.
Cement sector also closed up by 1.5%, led by stocks like Acc, Ambujacem, Cemturytex, Indiacem and Ultracemco.
Automobile, Fertilisers, Oil&Gas and Telecom sector witnessed maximum OI action.