currency view

India Rupee Drops Most in a Month on Speculation Inflows Slowed

The rupee dropped the most in more than a month on speculation capital inflows have slowed after India’s biggest equity offering in a year. Government bonds were little changed.
The government raised 114.7 billion rupees ($2.1 billion) last week, selling a stake in the nation’s biggest power producer NTPC Ltd., the New Delhi-based company’s Chairman Arup Roy Choudhury said Feb. 8. The rupee weakened for a fourth day after the U.S. reported the smallest trade deficit in three years, helping improve demand for the dollar. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major trading partners, traded near a four-week high.
The rupee declined 0.7 percent to 53.8550 per dollar in Mumbai, the biggest drop since Jan. 4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 53.8650 earlier, the lowest level since Jan. 29. The currency fell 0.6 percent in the five days through Feb. 8, snapping a four-week advance.
One-month implied volatility, a gauge of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, today to 9.28 percent. Markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia are closed today for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Yen Falls as Policy Comments Boost Depreciation Bets; Euro Gains
The yen fell for the first time in three days against the dollar as Japanese officials reinforced their commitment to policies that may weaken the currency.
Japan’s currency slid against all of its 16 major counterparts after Economy Minister Akira Amariwas reported by Kyodo news as saying the government will continue efforts to push stocks higher, and as one of the potential candidates to head the central bank said additional monetary easing can be justified. The euro advanced from a two-week low against the dollar before ministers from the 17-member currency bloc meet in Brussels today to discuss aid for Cyprus and Greece.
The yen fell 0.6 percent to 93.22 per dollar at 10:33 a.m. London time after jumping 1 percent on Feb. 8. Japan’s currency dropped 0.8 percent to 124.82 per euro. The shared currency strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.3388 after declining to $1.3325, the lowest since Jan. 24.
Analysts estimated the yen will weaken to 95 per dollar and around 130 per euro.

TECHNICAL INSIGHT 

USD INR (Feb 13 – Expiry)
USDINR has shown strong recovery from sub-53.5 levels in past few sessions. The pair looks strong in near term. This can be be "Buy on Dips"
Buy near 53.75 SL 53.60 TGT 53.90/54.10/54.25

EUR INR (Feb 13– Expiry)
EURINR is in weak trend, though the pair is getting support at lower levels.
Buy near 72.05 SL 71.90 TGT 72.30/72.45 OR Sell near 72.45 SL 72.65 TGT 72.30/72.05

 GBP INR (Feb 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR has failed to sustain at higher levels. This can be considered "Sell on Rise"
Sell near 85.16 SL 85.35 TGT 84.80/84.51/84.35 OR Buy near 84.35 SL SL 84.15 TGT 84.51/84.70/84.80/85

JPY INR (Feb 13 – Expiry)
JPYINR opens "Gap Up" OR "Gap Down" due to high volatility in JPYUSD. It is prudent to take a bet after watching 1st hour of trade.

Market view equity

 

Market view

The markets traded within a tight range amid high volatility and ended on as flat note. Buying was seen in Realty and Banking counters while Technology sector witnessed selling pressure.   

Nifty:      

Nifty traded within a tight range and ended on a flat note. The double bottom formation at 5847 on 21 Dec. 2012 will act as a strong support for Nifty. The 50 DMA at 5970 will act as an immediate resistance for Nifty. A close above this level will further extend the rally up to 6050/6100 until then expect selling pressure to continue at higher levels. 

Investment Ideas

Mahindra & Mahindra @ Rs. 883 (Target Price: Rs. 1100)
Mahindra & Mahindra CMP @ 883
• M&M’s Q3FY13 operating performance was in-line with est
• Automotive Segment (AS)- new launches drive growth ; 100 bps QoQ decline in
margin on seasonal/one-time costs; UV vol. traction to remain better than rest of
the auto sector
• Tractors continue to report resilient margins (+70 bps QoQ) despite weak
volumes, indicating pricing discipline – volume outlook continues to remain
muted
• We have broadly maintained our estimates and retain our ACCUMULATE rating
on the stock with a TP of Rs 1,100
• M&M is our preferred pick to play the domestic 4-wheeler space as we see
lesser downside risk to volume/growth estimate as compared to MSIL/AL


JM Financial (Target 26)

Tv18 (Target 38) 

 Unitech (Target 45) 

Zee Ltd (Target 260). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.
 

TECHNICAL Impact

TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (FEB– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.8600 with a SL 54.0000 possible targets of 53.6200/53.5000/53.3300.

EUR INR (FEB – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.0025 with a SL 72.1600 possible targets of 71.8600/71.8025/71.6600.
OR
Buy above 72.1600 with a SL 72.0625 possible targets of 72.3025/72.4000/72.5525.

Currency Headlines
Rupees declines the months low on speculation of FII capital withdrawal.
Indian rupee is hovering near this month’s low as the speculations have increased that FII had started withdrawing funds from Indian markets which has increased the pressure on their currency. The rupee declined 0.4 percent to 53.7050 per dollar. It touched 53.745 earlier, the lowest level since Jan. 29. The currency fell 0.6 percent in the five days through Feb. 8, snapping a four-week advance. Three-month onshore rupee forwards traded at 54.71 per dollar, compared with 54.66 on Feb. 8. Offshore non-deliverable contracts were at 54.54 versus 54.45.

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines
Rupee Leads Declines in Asian Currencies on Yen, Europe Concerns
Asian currencies fell for a third week amid concern the yen’s slump will trigger a currency war, and after the European Central Bank said the euro’s strength could hamper an economic recovery.
India’s rupee headed for its worst week in 2013 after the government predicted the slowest economic growth in a decade. Taiwan’s dollar slid to a five-month low and South Korea’s won pared a weekly gain after the yen’s plunge to the weakest level since May 2010 fueled speculation policy makers will rein in exchange rates to support exports. ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro’s rally in January may slow growth and a Bank of Japan board member said this week more initiatives are needed to attain its goal of boosting inflation to 2 percent.
“It’s a risk-off situation as we can expect more verbal warning about the yen-Asia crosses given recent statements in Japan,” said Wong Chee Seng, a currency strategist in Kuala Lumpur at Ambank Group. “Concerns about the euro’s strength and debt issues in major economies are also back on the radar.”
The rupee weakened 0.7 percent this week to 53.58 per dollar as of 2:24 p.m. in Mumbai.
Pound Set for Biggest Weekly Gain in Two Years
The pound headed for its biggest weekly advance in two years against the euro amid speculation the Bank of England will refrain from extending its stimulus program in contrast to its European counterpart.
Sterling rose for a third day versus the dollar before U.K. reports next week forecast to show producer prices rose in January and retail sales increased. Future Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that current monetary policy may be enough to help the economy, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy may “remain accommodative.” U.K. government bonds underperformed German bunds this week by the most in a month.
“We might see a stronger sterling against the euro,” said Eimear Daly, a currency-market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. in London. “We’ve seen a very dramatic move since the start of the year. The market had priced in aggressive easing from Carney and they were probably disappointed from what they saw yesterday. The move was compounded by what we saw from Draghi.”
The pound strengthened 0.2 percent to 85.11 pence per euro at 11:36 a.m. London time, having gained 2.1 percent this week, the most since the period ended Jan. 7, 2011. Sterling rose 0.3 percent to $1.5767.

TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair seems to be range with upward bias.
Buy near 53.50 SL 53.35 TGT 53.75/53.90

EURINR FEB 2013
The pair has shown weakness. Though, buying support has come at lower levels.
Sell near 72.22 SL 72.35 TGT 72/71.86 OR Buy near 71.86 SL 71.7 TGT 72/72.22

GBPINR FEB 2013
The pair can also be considered “Buy on Dips”
Buy near 84.55 SL 84.40 TGT 84.76/85.05

JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR

Bhartiartl ----->view on chart

TECH-Update: BHARTI AIRTEL: REACHED SUPPORT (314.5-320)..IF SUSTAINS, THEN PULLBACK TOWARDS 329/36/40 IS POSSIBLE. FAILURE CAN LEAD TO AN EXTENDED FALL UP TO 300/04 LEVELS

call update of 7th feb 2013

Our call of silver buy 1st target done of 58620 call given @58390
230 point profit in intraday 

1 lot profit is 6900

and our usd call almost 1st target done of 53.54 made high 53.5025
call given @53.30 , 20 paisa profit in intraday

10 lot trade profit is 2000

yesterday total profit was 6900+2000 = 8900

currency call update of today-->

USD 7 PAISA UP FROM PRICE WHERE BUY CALL GIVEN BOOK 50 % PROFIT HERE

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines
Euro Drops Against Dollar Amid Spanish Political
Turmoil
The euro fell toward a one-week low versus the dollar as
European Central Bank policy makers prepare to meet tomorrow
amid political and banking turmoil that threatens to deepen the
debt crisis gripping the currency bloc.
The 17-nation euro slid against most of its 16 major peers as
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faced opposition calls to
resign amid contested reports of corruption in his party. Italy’s
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA may disclose today the size
of losses it hid in 2008 and 2009 using derivatives. The yen
weakened to 94 per dollar for the first time since May 2010 on
speculation Japan’s government will select a new central bank
chief committed to boosting monetary easing.
The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.3535 at 10:09 a.m. London time,
after declining to $1.3459 yesterday, the lowest since Jan. 29. It
slipped 0.3 percent to 126.84 yen after climbing to 127.71, the
strongest since April 2010. The yen slid 0.1 percent to 93.71 per
dollar, after touching 94.06, the weakest level since May 5, 2010
U.K. Gilts Advance as Falling House Prices Spurs
Safety
U.K. government bonds rose, pushing 10-year yields down from
near the highest level in nine months, as a report showing house
prices declined in January spurred demand for safer assets.
The pound fell toward a six-month low against the dollar after
Halifax, which publishes the housing data, said the outlook for
the economy and the property market is unclear. The Bank of
England will leave its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5
percent and maintain its asset-purchase target at 375 billion
pounds ($587 billion) tomorrow, Bloomberg News surveys show.
The 10-year gilt yield fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage
point, to 2.11 percent at 9:10 a.m. London time after rising to
2.17 percent on Feb. 4, the highest since April 20. The 1.75
percent bond due in September 2022 rose 0.105, or 1.05 pounds
per 1,000-pound face amount, to 96.915.
The pound fell 0.2 percent to $1.5636 after dropping to $1.5631
yesterday, the lowest since Aug. 10. Sterling gained 0.2 percent
to 86.56 pence per euro. The U.K. currency depreciated to 87.17
pence on Feb. 1, the weakest since October 2011.

CURRENCY TECHNICAL VIEW

TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USDINR FEB 2013
The pair seems to be range with downward bias.
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2 OR Buy near
53.10 SL 52.95 TGT 53.25/53.47

EURINR FEB 2013
The pair has seen buying support at lower levels. Thus, this can
be considered Buy on declines.
Buy near 71.98 SL 71.85 TGT 72.2/72.35

GBPINR FEB 2013
The pair is unable to cross hurdles. It can be “Sell on Rise”
Sell near 83.9 SL 84.05 TGT 83.5/83.3

JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up
OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the
1st hour of trade in USDINR

SILVER & USD TODAYS VIEW

BUY SILVER MAR @ 58380-450 SL 58280 TGT 58620-58850.CMP- 58439.



BUY USDINR FEB @ 53.30-53.37 SL 53.16 TGT 53.54-53.72. CMP- 53.37