USDINR CALL GIVEN @54.60 ALMOST ALL TARGET DONE TODAY CMP 55.03
43 PAISA IN 1 DAY
43 PAISA IN 1 DAY
WELCOME
Wednesday, 16 January 2013
HEDGING STRATEGIES
BEARISH OPTION STRATEGIES
BEAR CALL SPREAD
A
Bear Call Spread is a bearish option strategy that works in the same
way a Bear Put Spread does, profiting when the underlying stock
drops. Establishing a Bear Call Spread involves the purchase of an Out
of The Money call option on the underlying asset while simultaneously
selling an In the Money or At The Money call option on the same
underlying asset with the same expiration month .
Sell ATM Call + Buy OTM Call
Risk / Reward of Bear Call Spread: Upside Maximum Profit is Limited , Maximum Loss is Limited
Break Even Point of Bear Call Spread : Lower Strike + Net premium received
Bear
Call Spread is a credit spread, you also make money if the underlying
asset stays stagnant through the decay and expiration of the more
expensive short call options.
MARKET COMMENTARY ON COMMDITIES
Market Commentary
Oil Trades Near Highest in Four Months on Colder Weather.
Oil traded near the highest level in almost four months in New York before reports that may show the economy recovering in the U.S. and as lower temperatures buoy demand for heating fuels. West Texas Intermediate was little changed after climbing 0.6 percent yesterday. The U.S. East Coast and Midwest will be 5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 Celsius) below normal from Jan. 19 to Jan. 23, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Retail sales probably rose for a second month in December. “Colder weather is helping the energy complex,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, who predicts WTI may remain capped at about $95.60 a barrel. “The global oil market looks evenly balanced.” Crude for February delivery was at $93.70 a barrel, down 44 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract increased to $94.14 yesterday, the highest settlement since Sept. 18. Prices dropped 7.1 percent last year.
Gold Forecasters Splitting on Peak for Bull Market.
Danske Bank A/S and Credit Suisse Group AG, the most-accurate gold forecasters, say prices will probably peak this year while their nearest rival, UniCredit SpA, sees no end in sight to the 12-year bull market. Gold will average $1,720 an ounce this year and $1,600 in 2014, said Christin Tuxen of Danske Bank in Copenhagen, who came closest to predicting moves in the past eight quarters. Tom Kendall at Credit Suisse in London expects $1,740 and $1,720 and Jochen Hitzfeld of UniCredit in Munich predicts $1,700 and $1,800. Bullion rose more than sixfold since the bull market began in 2001. All three forecast record average prices this year because central-bank stimulus will sustain buying as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Danske and Credit Suisse predict lower prices in 2014 as economic growth curbs demand for the metal as a protector of wealth while UniCredit says record- low interest rates will maintain gold’s allure.
Copper Falls to 2-Week Low After Rio’s Beats Forecasts.
Copper fell for a third day in New York on concern the euro-region debt crisis is sapping the economy in Germany, the world’s third-biggest user of the metal. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to 0.7 percent last year from 3 percent in 2011, Germany’s statistics office said today. Prices also slid after Rio Tinto Group’s production of mined copper topped analyst estimates, indicating ample supply. “Obviously it’s slightly bad news for Europe, as Germany is what’s dragging the European economy at the moment,” Christin Tuxen, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by phone today, referring to the German GDP figures. Copper for delivery in March dropped 0.4 percent to $3.621 a pound on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $3.614, the lowest level since Dec. 31. Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.5 percent to $7,964 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. “Metal markets will be much more focused on what comes out of China” this week, Tuxen said. Figures due Jan. 18 may show GDP growth strengthened in the fourth quarter and industrial production was little changed last month in the country, the world’s biggest copper consumer, according to analysts.
Oil Trades Near Highest in Four Months on Colder Weather.
Oil traded near the highest level in almost four months in New York before reports that may show the economy recovering in the U.S. and as lower temperatures buoy demand for heating fuels. West Texas Intermediate was little changed after climbing 0.6 percent yesterday. The U.S. East Coast and Midwest will be 5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.8 Celsius) below normal from Jan. 19 to Jan. 23, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Retail sales probably rose for a second month in December. “Colder weather is helping the energy complex,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, who predicts WTI may remain capped at about $95.60 a barrel. “The global oil market looks evenly balanced.” Crude for February delivery was at $93.70 a barrel, down 44 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract increased to $94.14 yesterday, the highest settlement since Sept. 18. Prices dropped 7.1 percent last year.
Gold Forecasters Splitting on Peak for Bull Market.
Danske Bank A/S and Credit Suisse Group AG, the most-accurate gold forecasters, say prices will probably peak this year while their nearest rival, UniCredit SpA, sees no end in sight to the 12-year bull market. Gold will average $1,720 an ounce this year and $1,600 in 2014, said Christin Tuxen of Danske Bank in Copenhagen, who came closest to predicting moves in the past eight quarters. Tom Kendall at Credit Suisse in London expects $1,740 and $1,720 and Jochen Hitzfeld of UniCredit in Munich predicts $1,700 and $1,800. Bullion rose more than sixfold since the bull market began in 2001. All three forecast record average prices this year because central-bank stimulus will sustain buying as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Danske and Credit Suisse predict lower prices in 2014 as economic growth curbs demand for the metal as a protector of wealth while UniCredit says record- low interest rates will maintain gold’s allure.
Copper Falls to 2-Week Low After Rio’s Beats Forecasts.
Copper fell for a third day in New York on concern the euro-region debt crisis is sapping the economy in Germany, the world’s third-biggest user of the metal. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to 0.7 percent last year from 3 percent in 2011, Germany’s statistics office said today. Prices also slid after Rio Tinto Group’s production of mined copper topped analyst estimates, indicating ample supply. “Obviously it’s slightly bad news for Europe, as Germany is what’s dragging the European economy at the moment,” Christin Tuxen, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by phone today, referring to the German GDP figures. Copper for delivery in March dropped 0.4 percent to $3.621 a pound on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $3.614, the lowest level since Dec. 31. Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.5 percent to $7,964 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. “Metal markets will be much more focused on what comes out of China” this week, Tuxen said. Figures due Jan. 18 may show GDP growth strengthened in the fourth quarter and industrial production was little changed last month in the country, the world’s biggest copper consumer, according to analysts.
NIFTY VIEW-->16 JAN 2013
Among Nifty options data of Jan series, maximum buildup among call strikes is witnessed at 6200 levels, which may act as resistance.
Call writing is witnessed at Nifty 6300 strike of Jan series.
Among Nifty put options, OI build up is witnessed at 6000 strike, while put writing is witnessed at 5800 and 5900 strike.
Telecom sector stocks witnessed long build up, major OI build up is seen in Bhartiartl, Idea and Rcom.
Cement sector also closed up by 1.5%, led by stocks like Acc, Ambujacem, Cemturytex, Indiacem and Ultracemco.
Automobile, Fertilisers, Oil&Gas and Telecom sector witnessed maximum OI action.
Call writing is witnessed at Nifty 6300 strike of Jan series.
Among Nifty put options, OI build up is witnessed at 6000 strike, while put writing is witnessed at 5800 and 5900 strike.
Telecom sector stocks witnessed long build up, major OI build up is seen in Bhartiartl, Idea and Rcom.
Cement sector also closed up by 1.5%, led by stocks like Acc, Ambujacem, Cemturytex, Indiacem and Ultracemco.
Automobile, Fertilisers, Oil&Gas and Telecom sector witnessed maximum OI action.
script watch of 16 jan 2013
January 16, 2013
SRIPT CMP TP Reco
NMDC 164 196 Buy
HZL 136 146 Buy
Tata steel 425 349 Reduce
Sterlite Ind. 116 92 Hold
SAIL 95 82 Sell
Hindalco 128 134 Buy
Sesa Goa 194 153 Hold
JSW Steel 861 743 Accumulate
Bhushan 429 408 Reduce
HEG 228 235 Hold
GPIL 117 143 Buy
SRIPT CMP TP Reco
NMDC 164 196 Buy
HZL 136 146 Buy
Tata steel 425 349 Reduce
Sterlite Ind. 116 92 Hold
SAIL 95 82 Sell
Hindalco 128 134 Buy
Sesa Goa 194 153 Hold
JSW Steel 861 743 Accumulate
Bhushan 429 408 Reduce
HEG 228 235 Hold
GPIL 117 143 Buy
Good news for steel sector
Metallica
Cost
push help steel prices gaining
During
the last fortnight (ending 14th Jan’13) steel prices saw a
good jump after a long consolidation. Iron ore prices on the other hand
continued to rise
·
The
CIS Black Sea (fob) export HRC prices gained 9% to US$580/ tonne. Domestic
prices in China rose by 3.3% during the same period to US$652/tonne. In
India
long product prices saw some improvement, while flat product prices
remained steady
·
Iron
ore prices continued their upward movement on due to higher imports from
China ,
as port inventory fell recently towards 72 mt. The 62% and 58% Fe grade iron
ore prices jumped 7% and 8% to US$154.6/tonne and US$145.7/tonne
respectively
Believe,
improvement in steel prices is due to cost push rather than demand pull, as
iron ore prices continued to soar. We would like to wait and watch whether steel
prices can sustain their recent gains.
Base
metals during the last fortnight remained quiet and ended flat on a
fortnightly basis
·
Copper
and aluminium gained 1% each to US$8030/tonne and US$2063/tonne
respectively while zinc and lead LME lost 2% and 1% to close at
US$1996/tonne and US$2305/tonne respectively. USD index remained stable at
79.5
Believe,
USD index would play a major role in deciding the base metals price
direction in the near termTECHNICAL Impact currency today->16.01.2013
TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking strong on charts hence buying is recommended in USD.
Buy around 54.8800 with a SL 54.6700 possible targets of 55.1500/55.3000/55.4000.
EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.8825 with a SL 72.9800 possible targets of 72.7400/72.6425/72.5300.
OR
Buy above 72.9800 with a SL 72.8825 possible targets of 73.1025/73.2000/73.3225.9818958023
Currency Headlines
Yuan falls as PBOC lowers the reference rate.
Yuan is hovering in bearish mode as the PBOC has lowered the reference rate to four months low which has increased the pressure on their currency. The People’s Bank of China lowered the yuan’s reference rate by 0.09 percent, the most since Sept. 18, to 6.2745 per dollar. The fixing was 0.97 percent weaker than yesterday’s close in Shanghai, near the 1 percent limit allowed by the central bank. The yuan declined 0.04 percent to 6.2162 per dollar, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The currency has climbed 0.23 percent this month and reached 6.2124 on Jan. 14, the strongest level since the government unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993.
USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking strong on charts hence buying is recommended in USD.
Buy around 54.8800 with a SL 54.6700 possible targets of 55.1500/55.3000/55.4000.
EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.8825 with a SL 72.9800 possible targets of 72.7400/72.6425/72.5300.
OR
Buy above 72.9800 with a SL 72.8825 possible targets of 73.1025/73.2000/73.3225.9818958023
Currency Headlines
Yuan falls as PBOC lowers the reference rate.
Yuan is hovering in bearish mode as the PBOC has lowered the reference rate to four months low which has increased the pressure on their currency. The People’s Bank of China lowered the yuan’s reference rate by 0.09 percent, the most since Sept. 18, to 6.2745 per dollar. The fixing was 0.97 percent weaker than yesterday’s close in Shanghai, near the 1 percent limit allowed by the central bank. The yuan declined 0.04 percent to 6.2162 per dollar, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The currency has climbed 0.23 percent this month and reached 6.2124 on Jan. 14, the strongest level since the government unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993.
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