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Monday, 7 January 2013

LANCO INFRATECH RESULT

K Raja Gopal, CEO-Power,, Lanco Infratech
The recent tariff hike in Tamil Nadu has come as a relief to Lanco Infratech   which is confronted with delayed payments from various state electricity boards (SEBs).The company believes a similar hike in other states will help the company improve receivables.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, K Rajagopal, CEO-Power, Lanco Infratech said that it is very critical to implement SEB restructuring package to improve their situation and is pending since quite sometime now.

SEBs have been facing financial stress due to power procurement costs in the past. Over the last one year, many of them have gone into debt restructuring and Tamil Nadu being one of them, has raised funds via government bonds.

The company is looking to unlock value to meet equity requirements for its new projects and for the same it may look at stake sale options for a few projects.

Last month, there were reports that Lanco has begun talks with JSW Energy and Adani Power to sell a power plant in Karnataka as banks pile pressure on debt-laden power companies to sell assets and improve cash flow.

The company is also concerned about bridging gap between the cost of recovery and cost of production and significant fall in its plant load factors overall due to fuel shortage also needs to addressed.

Below is the edited transcript of his interview on CNBC-TV18

Q: There is a suggestion that power tariffs could be increased. How important or crucial would it be? Do you think it is believable that the tariff hikes could be of the magnitude that is being spoken about?

A: They are quite necessary and essential at this point of time. In the last few years, if you take a span of four years we are paying almost twice the cost of petrol but the power costs have gone hardly around 20 percent in the last four-five years. That has put the distribution companies’ (discoms) financial positions in precarious position. The gap between cost to serve and cost of recovery needs to be closed at the earliest to save the financial health of discoms which will enable them to buy more power and increase their reach in supply to various class of consumers. So there is no other way but to enhance the tariffs in line with the cost to serve.

Another significant thing that we have noticed in the last few years is due to short supply of the fuel; either coal or gas the Plant Load Factors (PLFs) have significantly fallen rising the average cost of generation, which is also putting pressure on the discoms’ financial health. Therefore, not only tariff increases are required, which is important but simultaneously there is also a need for a reduction in the aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses. Also there is need for increased availability of fuel, to raise the average PLFs of generation in the country, which has been falling in the last two-three years. This is a very disturbing trend.

Q: How significantly would it improve the receivable situation that you have from some State Electricity Board (SEB) like Karnataka?

A: Tamil Nadu has increased the tariffs almost close to 37 percent last year and that has significantly improved the receivables from the state. Slowly they have started clearing the outstanding debt for the private power generators. Similarly,Uttar Pradesh (UP) has increased tariffs but the results are yet to be seen but they have slowly started repaying some of the outstandings.  Even in Karnataka, the tariff increase would definitely help the discoms to start clearing the outstanding.

The cash flow resulting from the tariff increase is one component of the cash flows to clear the outstanding dues. The major thing would come from the restructuring package that is announced by the government wherein 50 percent of the outstandings are to be converted into bonds issued by them and taken over by the state government.

Unless these major restructuring packages are implemented, the substantial reduction of the outstandings as of March 12 will not happen. The cash flows from the tariff increase will definitely help but it has to be supplemented with the implementation of the restructuring package, where it will improve the cash flows for the discoms to clear these outstanding liabilities.

Q: There has been some talk that you are actively looking to sell your Udupi plant of 1200 MW and you have started discussions with a couple of private players, can you confirm that?

A: I will not comment on that specifically but we are definitely looking at unlocking the value of some of the assets we have already created, to meet our equity requirements in the new projects that are ongoing. In fact because of the market conditions, we could not raise the equity as we planed to, in terms of dilution of our holding company. We would be waiting for an opportune time to realise better value. In the meantime, we are looking at the opportunities to unlock some of the value, of some of the assets we have already completed. At an appropriate time we would be definitely coming back to you on this.

Q: We hear that both JSW Energy and Adani Power could be interested. If you do get a buyer, whoever it is, would you be looking to sell 100 percent of the stake in Udupi plant?

A: It depends on how the terms of the offer are looked at.


Positive Breakouts Today Stocks moving above its Simple Moving Average

Company Name Current Price Change % Simple Moving Averages
    30 Days 50 Days 150 Days 200 Days
Sterling Bio 6.30 18.64 5.31 5.38 6.26 7.05
LCC Infotech 0.40 11.11 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38
FCS Software 0.40 11.11 0.36 0.36 0.38 0.38
OM Metals Infra 26.50 8.78 24.36 23.89 23.54 24.19
HFCL 10.85 6.58 10.18 10.44 11.18 11.27
Karma Energy 16.00 6.45 15.03 13.82 12.41 0.00
Zylog Systems 70.00 5.49 66.36 89.76 228.96 249.82
Compuage Info 59.75 4.51 57.17 58.28 61.49 0.00
Assam Company 7.15 4.38 6.85 6.68 6.22 6.46
Metkore Alloys 12.90 4.37 12.36 12.68 13.31 13.71
Indowind Energy 4.55 4.12 4.37 4.16 4.17 4.52
Oil Country 53.50 3.82 51.53 52.39 51.82 51.73
Bafna Pharma 49.50 3.80 47.69 0.00 0.00 0.00
Impex FerroTech 5.55 3.74 5.35 5.47 6.05 6.42
Sanwaria Agro 37.55 3.56 36.26 37.32 37.96 36.11
Tainwala Chem 21.60 3.35 20.90 20.93 22.30 21.60
SML Isuzu 476.95 3.30 461.71 460.84 414.53 412.20
Sutlej Textiles 235.35 3.30 227.83 222.65 188.27 185.48
Refex Refrigera 3.15 3.28 3.05 2.99 3.25 3.55
KS Oils 4.45 3.01 4.32 4.30 4.78 5.18
Sezal Glass 7.65 2.96 7.43 7.42 8.70 10.51
Accelya Kale 370.00 2.83 359.83 319.63 213.47 191.92
Ginni Filaments 7.10 2.75 6.91 6.90 6.29 6.15
LGB Forge 2.35 2.62 2.29 2.34 2.49 2.54
NIIT 31.65 2.43 30.90 31.85 35.27 37.79
Hind Composites 369.90 2.38 361.29 367.30 390.07 0.00
Onelife Capital 789.00 2.35 770.90 776.38 616.29 536.38
Pochiraju Ind 13.40 2.29 13.10 13.32 13.63 13.81
Eimco Elecon 226.25 2.25 221.27 210.08 183.42 180.62
Wanbury 23.45 2.05 22.98 23.30 20.75 20.55
Kilitch Drugs 36.80 2.05 36.06 36.53 49.36 50.83
Rico Auto 10.10 2.02 9.90 10.42 9.95 9.95
Unichem Labs 191.20 1.92 187.60 186.47 167.79 160.20
Precision Wires 78.30 1.70 76.99 78.79 80.98 79.68
Kopran 22.35 1.64 21.99 21.83 19.23 18.36
Burnpur Cement 9.30 1.64 9.15 9.48 7.63 7.32
Creative Eye 5.70 1.60 5.61 5.50 4.91 4.77
Exide Industrie 145.25 1.59 142.97 141.65 138.85 136.95
Welspun India 63.50 1.57 62.52 60.34 55.55 53.04
CCL Products 333.20 1.52 328.20 321.18 277.93 250.78
Kitply Ind 2.75 1.48 2.71 2.69 2.91 2.98
Praj Industries 50.00 1.40 49.31 48.05 50.89 55.22
Bharat Gears 55.85 1.29 55.14 56.75 66.10 68.21
Malu Paper 9.50 1.28 9.38 9.33 9.45 9.56
Lumax Auto Sys 24.90 1.26 24.59 24.87 24.87 25.31
Sona Koyo Stee 13.10 1.24 12.94 12.89 13.00 12.95
PTC India Fin 18.40 1.04 18.21 17.53 15.40 15.45
Zee Learn 30.60 1.02 30.29 29.99 26.97 24.74
Gujarat Pipavav 48.65 1.02 48.16 48.23 51.94 53.26
Mah and Mah 950.90 0.98 941.71 925.02 807.66 776.32
Welspun Corp 107.60 0.94 106.60 104.00 105.95 111.40
Sanghvi Forging 37.15 0.92 36.81 37.86 49.51 53.77
AIA Engineering 336.50 0.89 333.54 347.24 342.55 346.18
Arvind Remedies 31.50 0.86 31.23 31.51 28.51 27.25
Techno Electric 188.00 0.85 186.41 192.92 184.03 183.34
Eastern Silk 3.60 0.84 3.57 3.42 3.32 3.43
CORE Education 318.55 0.81 316.00 313.98 308.26 302.91
Dhanuka Agritec 130.00 0.81 128.95 127.91 108.01 102.58
Dhunseri Petro 114.10 0.77 113.23 113.68 113.11 112.39
Pilani Invest 1,498.00 0.72 1,487.31 1,510.59 1,498.25 1,512.69
Classic Diamond 4.55 0.66 4.52 4.41 4.41 4.67
Reliance Power 96.95 0.65 96.32 95.87 95.21 98.00
Guj Heavy Chem 38.00 0.64 37.76 38.37 39.06 38.37
Star Paper 14.60 0.62 14.51 14.29 13.85 14.29
Reliance Broadc 44.70 0.61 44.43 43.69 45.94 46.61
Krishna Eng 1.70 0.59 1.69 1.75 2.03 0.00
S Kumars Nation 14.10 0.57 14.02 14.27 22.19 24.33
Vesuvius India 343.95 0.56 342.04 343.40 354.06 365.88
Monsanto India 638.70 0.55 635.19 632.46 639.58 647.76
Guj Mineral 208.00 0.45 207.07 208.90 196.75 192.12
BEML 287.40 0.44 286.15 287.40 318.31 377.05
Arrow Textiles 6.90 0.44 6.87 6.84 6.62 6.60
Jagson Pharma 13.90 0.43 13.84 13.85 13.35 13.25
Usha Martin 33.25 0.42 33.11 31.92 28.51 28.64
Excel 82.00 0.40 81.67 81.93 74.93 73.21
Godawari Power 118.40 0.37 117.96 118.30 119.51 118.43
AP Paper Mills 289.45 0.36 288.41 292.84 301.65 283.92
Savita Oil Tech 522.35 0.34 520.60 513.98 486.08 476.67
SMS Pharma 189.10 0.33 188.47 191.20 179.99 172.16
Kesar Terminals 65.50 0.31 65.30 68.49 65.20 0.00
Madras Fert 17.10 0.29 17.05 17.23 18.01 18.45
Vivimed Labs 342.85 0.27 341.93 342.37 365.56 377.18
Eros Intern 209.20 0.23 208.73 191.58 177.32 178.54
KCP Sugar 23.30 0.22 23.25 22.53 19.80 18.90
Vardhman Acryli 11.50 0.17 11.48 11.49 10.97 10.22
Foseco India 579.00 0.16 578.10 585.21 609.10 630.89
Supreme Infra 253.00 0.13 252.68 264.31 280.92 283.74
Almondz Global 8.55 0.12 8.54 8.44 8.31 8.89
Himatsingka Sei 41.00 0.10 40.96 39.42 33.84 33.14
HT Media 102.85 0.10 102.75 101.35 96.34 103.48
Apollo Hospital 812.45 0.09 811.72 809.01 709.32 688.01
Hb Stockhol 13.50 0.07 13.49 13.06 11.32 11.28
IFB Industries 107.95 0.06 107.88 107.67 87.19 83.98
Tecpro Systems 156.10 0.06 156.01 157.36 156.82 162.63
Asian Hotels 175.90 0.06 175.79 181.01 189.27 191.36
GEI Industrial 69.85 0.04 69.82 68.42 81.34 91.28
Ruby Mills 337.80 0.02 337.72 342.02 338.48 343.07

BANKS AND OIL --->7TH JAN 2013


Banks, oil stocks to push Nifty another 1.5-2% up

Allahabad Bank 

I have seen a strong accumulation pattern in Allahabad Bank so it is closed at Rs 184. I think keeping a stop loss of Rs 179 this is moving towards Rs 198. If one were to play towards higher moves then it is going to come in smaller banks. Given that the volatility has to be managed as well, I would play this. The 52 week high is Rs 211. We are marking our target a tad less than that and maybe closer to the next ten days one should get target met. 


SINTEX
The accumulation pattern on Friday was almost like a candlestick, which was showing that people were in a rush to scramble the stock. Given that it has closed at Rs 70.25, the fact that it was closing over Rs 69.50 was a breakout. I would look for a target closer to Rs 76 and stop loss should be spaced out at about Rs 68.50 and looks like it will meet pretty soon. 

OUR WATCH LIST---->7TH JAN 2013


Rolta on weekly breakout---->7TH JAN 2013

Rolta on weekly breakout....Buy at dips to 65. SL below 64. TGTs: 71-75

BFUTILITY/STERLIGHT TECH/SHIV VANI OIL--->

BF util crosing important resistance 372/75. Buy with SL 368. TGT: 390/400

STERLITE TECH: BOTTOMED OUT...BUY AT CMP 33.7 AND AT ALL DIPS FROM HEREON. TGTs: 37-41-45. SL: BELOW 29

Risky Bet for short term: Buy SHiv Vani Oil @ 103/104 WIth SL below 98. TGTs: 115-130

 

Powergrid view on chart-->7th jan 2013

View on Chart: On daily cards, stock is trading at crucial range and is likely to provide break in coming week. Probability to have upside breakout is high and if it holds 112/113 levels, then we can an action towards 117-121-124 levels in coming days. Move below 112 will be considered as breakdown and i such case stock can dip up to 108 or upto 105 levels. In both cases, traders should keep stop loss inside 112-114 range.

Power Grid--->7th jan 2013







View on Chart: On daily cards, stock is trading at crucial range and is likely to provide break in coming week. Probability to have upside breakout is high and if it holds 112/113 levels, then we can an action towards 117-121-124 levels in coming days. Move below 112 will be considered as breakdown and in such case stock can dip up to 108 or upto 105 levels. In both cases, traders should keep stop loss inside 112-114 range.