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Tuesday, 29 January 2013

CURRENCY VIEW

TECHNICAL Impact
USD INR (JAN– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.9500 with a SL 54.1000 possible targets of 53.7500/53.6000/53.4500
.


EUR INR (JAN – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 71.3825 with a SL 71.4800 possible targets of 71.2000/71.1025/71.0100.
OR
Buy above 71.4800 with a SL 71.3825 possible targets of 71.6325/71.7500/72.8825.


Currency Headlines
Dollar falls before U.S consumer confidence figures.
Dollar has started falling against other markets peers before U.S consumer confidence figures which has increased the bearish bets on USD. Speculations have increased that the consumer confidence figures might disappoint the U.S investors. The dollar was little changed at $1.3458 per euro from $1.3456 in New York. It reached $1.3479 per euro on Jan. 25, the weakest level since Feb. 29, 2012. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 90.90 yen. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 122.35 per euro. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks rose 0.7 percent, the most since Jan. 18.

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines
Yen Rises as Traders Reduce Bearish Bets; Pound Drops
The yen rallied from its weakest level versus the dollar in 2 1/2 years as traders reduced bets the Japanese currency would keep falling after its recent slide.


The yen also strengthened as technical indicators signalled the declines may have been excessive. The dollar rose against most of its 16 major counterparts before a report that economists said will show U.S. durable goods orders climbed in December. The pound fell to its weakest level in 13 months versus the euro after data showed U.K. house prices stagnated in January. South Korea’s won slid amid bets the nation’s central bank will seek to weaken the currency. The yen appreciated 0.2 percent to 90.70 per dollar at 6:36 a.m. New York time, after reaching 91.26, the weakest level since June 2010. It climbed 0.3 percent to 121.95 per euro. 

Europe’s shared currency was little changed at $1.3447
Swiss Ministers Seek More Depreciation of ‘Strong’ Franc
Swiss ministers said the franc’s strength remains a concern even after its recent slide against the euro to the weakest in 20 months.


“Euphoria is misplaced” and more depreciation is needed, Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26. “The franc is still very strong.”
The Swiss National Bank imposed a ceiling of 1.20 francs to the euro in September 2011 to protect exporters as surging bond yields in Europe’s weakest economies pushed investors to seek the safest assets. The currency has since weakened as signs Europe’s debt crisis is easing sapped demand for havens.
While the franc has depreciated 3.2 percent against the euro this year, it’s still 9.1 percent stronger than the five- year average and 35 percent above an October 2007 low of 1.6828. The euro traded at 1.24588 francs at 11:16 a.m. in Zurich today.


Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann echoed Widmer-Schlumpf’s comments, telling reporters the same day that the franc still is “too strong.” He said he “hopes it will devalue further.”
The prospects for the franc are “a question of how the euro develops,” Widmer-Schlumpf said. She said she also hopes the depreciation continues.


TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USD INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
The pair remains in 53.40-54.20 range.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome


EUR INR (Jan 13– Expiry)
EURUSD has shown strength. This should be seen in EURINR also.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome


GBP INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR is in weak trend. Let the initial dust get settle, then look to Sell on rise.
Wait for RBI Meet Outcome


JPY INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR