CURRENCY INDRADAY VIEW

USD INR (FEB– Expiry)
US dollar is looking weak on charts hence selling is recommended in USD.
Sell around 53.2500 with a SL 53.4000 possible targets of 53.0000/52.9000/52.7600.

EUR INR (FEB – Expiry)
Euro might fall further as technically looking weak.
Sell below 72.3525 with a SL 72.4500 possible targets of 72.2000/72.1025/72.0000.
OR
Buy above 72.4500 with a SL 72.3525 possible targets of 72.6025/72.7000/72.8825.

Currency Headlines
Yuan falls as PBOC cut the reference rate.
Yuan falls to the one month’s low as the People’s Bank of China cuts the reference rate on Japanese economic weakness. The People’s Bank of China lowered the yuan’s fixing by 0.07 percent to 6.2860 per dollar today, the weakest level since Jan. 7. The yuan fell 0.04 percent to 6.2294 per dollar as of 9:52 a.m. in Shanghai, prices from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System show. It touched 6.2304 per dollar, the weakest level since Jan. 7. One-month implied volatility in the Chinese currency, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.35 percent. In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the yuan dropped 0.05 percent to 6.2158 per dollar. Twelve-month non-deliverable yuan forwards slid 0.09 percent to 6.3235, and traded at 1.5 percent discount to the onshore exchange rate, the data show.

COMMODITIES CALLS

 GOLD >>>>>>Sell near 30750 SL 30820 TGT 30620/30480 OR Buy near 30480 SL 30425 TGT 
30620/30750  

Aluminium >>>>>>Sell near 113.5 SL 114.2 TGT 112/111 OR Buy near 111 SL 110.4 TGT 111.7/112.6 

Copper>>>>>> Buy near 440.8 SL 438 TGT 443/447 OR Sell near 447 SL 450 TGT 444.7/440.8  

LEAD>>>>>>Sell near 131.8 SL132.8 TGT 130.1/128.5 or Buy near 129.4 SL 128.5 TGT 130.3/131.8


NICKEL>>>>>>Buy near 985 SL 977 TGT 993/1005

CRUDE OIL>>>>  Buy near 5150 SL 5120 TGT 5205 OR Sell near 5245 SL 5270 TGT 5205/5175

NATURAL GAS>> Sell near 178 SL 180.5 TGT 176/172

Market Commentary

Market Commentary
Oil Heads for Longest Run of Weekly Gains Since 2004 on Economy.
Oil headed for the longest run of weekly gains in more than eight years in New York before a report that may show the U.S. added jobs last month, signaling an economic recovery in the world’s biggest crude consumer. West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed, and were poised for an eighth weekly advance, the most since August 2004. U.S. employers probably added 165,000 workers last month after a 155,000 increase in December, according to a Bloomberg News survey before Labor Department data today. Prices slid for the first time in four days yesterday as separate reports showed consumer confidence slipped and jobless claims rose. Crude for March delivery was at $97.61 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures slid 45 cents to $97.49 yesterday. Prices are up 1.8 percent this week. Brent for March settlement climbed 65 cents to $115.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark grade closed at a premium of $18.06 to WTI futures.
Gold Falls Most in Four Weeks on Signs of Tame Inflation.

Gold futures posted the biggest drop in almost four weeks as U.S. inflation concerns waned, eroding demand for the metal as a hedge against rising consumer prices. A government report today showed an index of inflation tied to spending patterns was unchanged in December from November. Excluding food and energy costs, prices climbed 1.4 percent in 2012, compared with a 1.9 percent increase in the previous year. Inflation “has been running somewhat below the committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices,” the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday. “Deflation is probably a greater risk now than inflation, and the concern is that the deflationary forces may be more than central banks can handle,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Every time gold rallies, those deflationary forces keep batting it down.” Gold futures for April delivery dropped 1.2 percent to settle at $1,662 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Jan. 4. This month, the price dropped 0.8 percent, the fourth straight decline and the longest slump since May.
Copper Falls as Jobless Claims, UPS Earnings Cloud Outlook.

Copper fell for the first time this week as a jump in U.S. jobless claims and a disappointing earnings forecast by United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) signaled the recovery is making uneven progress. Filings for unemployment benefits rose 38,000 last week, the most since Nov. 10, government data showed today. Atlanta- based UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, said earnings this year will be $4.80 to $5.06 a share, below the $5.13 estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Copper rose 2.7 percent the previous three days on signs of economic growth in the U.S. and China. Copper futures for delivery in March slipped 0.5 percent to settle at $3.732 a pound on the Comex in New York, paring the monthly gain to 2.2 percent. Investors use UPS as a gauge of the economy because it handles goods as varied as auto parts and pharmaceuticals. Copper also fell as industrial production in Japan, the world’s fourth-biggest consumer, rose less in December than economists forecast. China is the largest buyer of the metal, followed by the U.S. and Germany. On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months was 0.7 percent lower at $8,165 a metric ton ($3.70 a pound). Nickel, tin, aluminum, zinc and lead also declined on the LME.

Currency Headlines

Currency Headlines

Euro Rallies to Highest Since 2011 as ECB Balance Sheet Shrinks
The euro touched the highest level against the dollar in 14 months as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet contracted while the Federal Reserve said it would continue pumping money into the U.S. economy.

The 17-nation currency gained for a second week, its first back-to-back advance this year, amid data that showed Europe’s economy may be improving. The yen fell versus the dollar for a 12th straight week, the longest since at least 1971, amid bets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will pick a new central-bank governor who will boost monetary stimulus. South Korea’s won slid versus all of its major peers. The ECB meets Feb. 7 on interest rates.

The shared currency rallied 1.3 percent to $1.3640 this week in New York. It touched $1.3711, the strongest level since Nov. 14, 2011. Against the yen, the euro climbed 3.6 percent, the most since February 2012, to 126.66 and touched 126.97, the highest since April 2010.

Pound Falls Versus Euro as Data Signals Recovery Stalling
The pound declined for a fourth week against the euro, the longest streak since September, as economic reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing suggested the U.K. economic recovery is petering out.

Sterling fell to a 15-month low against the single currency as data showed economic confidence in the euro area improved in January, adding to signs the region’s debt crisis is easing. Gilts dropped for a second week before policy makers meet amid speculation they will hold their bond-buying program at 375 billion pounds ($590 billion).

“With the euro story improving, the pound is losing its safe-haven status somewhat,” said Robert Mialich, a currency strategist at UniCredit Global Research in Milan. “And it doesn’t help that the U.K. economic outlook isn’t promising. People are increasingly questioning the country’s AAA status. We expect sterling to weaken further.”

The pound depreciated 2.1 percent to 87.97 pence per euro at 5:05 p.m. in London yesterday, when it touched 87.17 pence, the weakest level since October 2011. Sterling dropped 0.4 percent to $1.5734 for a third week of declines.
A gauge of U.K. manufacturing output fell to 50.8 this month from a revised 51.2 in December, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said yesterday

TECHNICAL VIEW

TECHNICAL INSIGHT 
 USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has failed to sustain the up moves. Its “ Sell On Rise”
Sell near 53.80 SL 54 TGT 53.6/53.4/53.2

EURINR FEB 2013
EURUSD has shown good strength. The pair can be considered Buy on declines.
Buy near 72.50 SL 72.30 TGT 72.76/73.10

GBPINR FEB 2013
GBPINR is in weak trend. This should be considered “Sell on Rise”
Sell near 84.50 SL 84.70 TGT 84.27/84/83.8

JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR