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Wednesday, 20 February 2013
Market Commentary
Market Commentary
Oil Gains on German Investor Outlook; BofA Sees $140 Brent.
West Texas Intermediate oil in New York fluctuated after a report showed that rising investor confidence in Germany, the world’s fifth biggest crude importing country. Brent futures traded in London may be capped at $140 a barrel this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.WTI traded in a 91-cent-a-barrel range. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations climbed to highest in almost three years. Brent will trade in a range of $100 to $130 a barrel through to 2015, according to Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The market is consolidating between $95 and $98,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The German economic sentiment data was good, which is providing a little support. Investors are waiting for the economic data point that will be the catalyst to break out of this range.” WTI futures for March delivery, which expire tomorrow, fell 11 cents to $95.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more-active April contract declined 19 cents to $96.22.
Gold Climbs From 6-Month Low in London; Platinum Advances.
Gold swung between gains and losses near a six-month low in London as investors weighed signs of improving economic growth against speculation that the biggest weekly drop since May will spur purchases. Platinum gained on reports of a shooting at an Anglo American Platinum Ltd. mine. The metal dropped 3.4 percent last week and holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell the most since July in the period on growing confidence that the global economy is strengthening. Billionaire investor George Soros cut his gold ETP holdings last quarter, government filings showed last week. UBS AG said in a report today that its gold flows to India, the top buyer, were above average after the sell-off, and Morgan Stanley said it expects “bargain hunting” this week. “In the face of increasingly positive economic data and good stock market yields, the zero returns of gold and silver are looking more and more unattractive,” David Govett, head of precious metals at Marex Spectron Group in London, wrote in a report today. “Gold has been meandering aimlessly for a while now and needed a move one way or the other to wash out a lot of stale positions. We have seen the return of the Asian market and some physical buying, albeit light.” Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,611.67 an ounce. Prices fell as much as 0.1 percent after rising 0.5 percent earlier today, and slid to $1,598.23 on Feb. 15, the lowest since Aug. 15. Futures for April delivery were 0.1 percent higher at $1,611.30 on the Comex in New York.
Copper Retreats as Slowing Industrial Production May Curb Demand.
Copper fell on speculation that slowing industrial production from Europe to the U.S. may curb demand and as inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange reached the highest level since November 2011. Copper for three-month delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to $8,280 a metric ton on the LME and traded at $8,286. The metal for delivery in March gained 0.2 percent to $3.765 a pound on the Comex in New York. Markets in China, the biggest consumer, are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Industrial production in France, Europe’s second-largest economy, probably declined 0.2 percent in December from the previous month, when it rose 0.5 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before data today.
Industrial production in the U.S. may have risen 0.2 percent in January from a 0.3 percent gain in a month earlier, data may show this week.
Oil Gains on German Investor Outlook; BofA Sees $140 Brent.
West Texas Intermediate oil in New York fluctuated after a report showed that rising investor confidence in Germany, the world’s fifth biggest crude importing country. Brent futures traded in London may be capped at $140 a barrel this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.WTI traded in a 91-cent-a-barrel range. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations climbed to highest in almost three years. Brent will trade in a range of $100 to $130 a barrel through to 2015, according to Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The market is consolidating between $95 and $98,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The German economic sentiment data was good, which is providing a little support. Investors are waiting for the economic data point that will be the catalyst to break out of this range.” WTI futures for March delivery, which expire tomorrow, fell 11 cents to $95.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more-active April contract declined 19 cents to $96.22.
Gold Climbs From 6-Month Low in London; Platinum Advances.
Gold swung between gains and losses near a six-month low in London as investors weighed signs of improving economic growth against speculation that the biggest weekly drop since May will spur purchases. Platinum gained on reports of a shooting at an Anglo American Platinum Ltd. mine. The metal dropped 3.4 percent last week and holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell the most since July in the period on growing confidence that the global economy is strengthening. Billionaire investor George Soros cut his gold ETP holdings last quarter, government filings showed last week. UBS AG said in a report today that its gold flows to India, the top buyer, were above average after the sell-off, and Morgan Stanley said it expects “bargain hunting” this week. “In the face of increasingly positive economic data and good stock market yields, the zero returns of gold and silver are looking more and more unattractive,” David Govett, head of precious metals at Marex Spectron Group in London, wrote in a report today. “Gold has been meandering aimlessly for a while now and needed a move one way or the other to wash out a lot of stale positions. We have seen the return of the Asian market and some physical buying, albeit light.” Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,611.67 an ounce. Prices fell as much as 0.1 percent after rising 0.5 percent earlier today, and slid to $1,598.23 on Feb. 15, the lowest since Aug. 15. Futures for April delivery were 0.1 percent higher at $1,611.30 on the Comex in New York.
Copper Retreats as Slowing Industrial Production May Curb Demand.
Copper fell on speculation that slowing industrial production from Europe to the U.S. may curb demand and as inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange reached the highest level since November 2011. Copper for three-month delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to $8,280 a metric ton on the LME and traded at $8,286. The metal for delivery in March gained 0.2 percent to $3.765 a pound on the Comex in New York. Markets in China, the biggest consumer, are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Industrial production in France, Europe’s second-largest economy, probably declined 0.2 percent in December from the previous month, when it rose 0.5 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before data today.
Industrial production in the U.S. may have risen 0.2 percent in January from a 0.3 percent gain in a month earlier, data may show this week.
Currency Headlines
Currency Headlines
Yen Rises After Aso Rules Out Japan’s Foreign-Debt Buying
The yen strengthened for the first time in three days against the dollar as Japanese finance minister Taro Aso said the government doesn’t intend to purchase foreign bonds to end deflation by weakening the currency.
The yen rose from near the weakest since May 2010 versus the U.S. currency as his comments countered those of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who said yesterday buying foreign bonds “exists as one idea” for monetary policy. South Africa’s rand slid as clashes between labor unions at a mine spurred concern of a repeat of violence that curbed production last year. Australia’s dollar rose as the central bank said an improved global outlook spurred commodity prices.
The yen rose 0.4 percent to 93.61 per dollar at 9:56 a.m. in London after depreciating to 94.46 on Feb. 11, the weakest level since May 5, 2010. Japan’s currency gained 0.3 percent to 125.03 per euro. The euro was little changed at $1.3357.
Japanese officials have toned down calls for a weaker yen to help exporters after trade partners complained the nation risked setting off a currency war. Since Abe called for unlimited money printing by the central bank when he was opposition leader on Nov. 15, the yen has slid 13 percent against the dollar, the biggest drop among major currencies.
Pound Rises From 7-Month Low Before U.K. Jobless Report
The pound rose from the lowest level in more than seven months versus the dollar as economists said a report tomorrow will show U.K. unemployment claims dropped for a third month in January.
Britain’s currency was little changed against the euro before the Bank of England releases the minutes of its Feb. 7 meeting tomorrow. The pound weakened yesterday after central bank policy maker Martin Weale endorsed the currency’s decline, saying it may help bolster exports. U.K government bonds were little changed, with the 10-year yield about seven basis points from the highest level since April.
The pound gained 0.1 percent to $1.5487 at 10:11 a.m. London time after sliding to $1.5438 yesterday, the lowest since July 13. Sterling traded at 86.28 pence per euro.
Jobless claims declined by 5,500 from December, when they dropped 12,100 to 1.56 million, the lowest since June 2011, according to the median estimate of 24 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The London-based Office for National Statistics will release the data tomorrow.
The pound has depreciated 4.5 percent this year, the second-worst performer after the yen among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has shown strong momentum on upside. Some Cool-Off can be expected after sharp up move in past few sessions.
Buy near 54.20 SL 54.05 TGT 54.40/54.60 OR Sell near 54.60 SL 54.75 TGT 54.40/54.20
EURINR FEB 2013
The pair may open with huge gap (Up or Down) as Forex market opens after 2 days, with global markets open during this period. Its prudent to take a bet after 1st hour of trade.
GBPINR FEB 2013
Forex market opens after 2 days, wait for 1st hour then take a view.
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
Yen Rises After Aso Rules Out Japan’s Foreign-Debt Buying
The yen strengthened for the first time in three days against the dollar as Japanese finance minister Taro Aso said the government doesn’t intend to purchase foreign bonds to end deflation by weakening the currency.
The yen rose from near the weakest since May 2010 versus the U.S. currency as his comments countered those of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who said yesterday buying foreign bonds “exists as one idea” for monetary policy. South Africa’s rand slid as clashes between labor unions at a mine spurred concern of a repeat of violence that curbed production last year. Australia’s dollar rose as the central bank said an improved global outlook spurred commodity prices.
The yen rose 0.4 percent to 93.61 per dollar at 9:56 a.m. in London after depreciating to 94.46 on Feb. 11, the weakest level since May 5, 2010. Japan’s currency gained 0.3 percent to 125.03 per euro. The euro was little changed at $1.3357.
Japanese officials have toned down calls for a weaker yen to help exporters after trade partners complained the nation risked setting off a currency war. Since Abe called for unlimited money printing by the central bank when he was opposition leader on Nov. 15, the yen has slid 13 percent against the dollar, the biggest drop among major currencies.
Pound Rises From 7-Month Low Before U.K. Jobless Report
The pound rose from the lowest level in more than seven months versus the dollar as economists said a report tomorrow will show U.K. unemployment claims dropped for a third month in January.
Britain’s currency was little changed against the euro before the Bank of England releases the minutes of its Feb. 7 meeting tomorrow. The pound weakened yesterday after central bank policy maker Martin Weale endorsed the currency’s decline, saying it may help bolster exports. U.K government bonds were little changed, with the 10-year yield about seven basis points from the highest level since April.
The pound gained 0.1 percent to $1.5487 at 10:11 a.m. London time after sliding to $1.5438 yesterday, the lowest since July 13. Sterling traded at 86.28 pence per euro.
Jobless claims declined by 5,500 from December, when they dropped 12,100 to 1.56 million, the lowest since June 2011, according to the median estimate of 24 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The London-based Office for National Statistics will release the data tomorrow.
The pound has depreciated 4.5 percent this year, the second-worst performer after the yen among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT USDINR FEB 2013
The pair has shown strong momentum on upside. Some Cool-Off can be expected after sharp up move in past few sessions.
Buy near 54.20 SL 54.05 TGT 54.40/54.60 OR Sell near 54.60 SL 54.75 TGT 54.40/54.20
EURINR FEB 2013
The pair may open with huge gap (Up or Down) as Forex market opens after 2 days, with global markets open during this period. Its prudent to take a bet after 1st hour of trade.
GBPINR FEB 2013
Forex market opens after 2 days, wait for 1st hour then take a view.
JPYINR FEB 2013
Given uncertainty in USDJPY globally, the pair can have Gap up OR Gap down open. Its better to take any call after watching the 1st hour of trade in USDINR
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