Currency Weekly
U.S government
is showing hope of recovery as the U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast
last month and the unemployment rate dropped to an almost four-year low which
might increase the demand of dollar. European Central Bank is indicating
weakness is their economy might persist which is a bullish factor for U.S
dollar. Indian government might come up with huge reforms in coming years as
this year budget would be the last before 2014 elections which might support
the Indian capital markets. However Indian GDP and industrial manufacturing
figures are in bad shape which can increase the pressure on their currency.
1st Week, November 2012
03 Dec: Close
55.18 – U.S manufacturing has shown weakness which was reflected on their
currency as well.
04 Dec: Close
55.14 – The FDI voting in retail sector was a key support to the Indian
currency.
05 Dec: Close
55.02 – Indian government got the parliamentary approval of FDI in retail
sector which has given support to Indian currency.
06 Dec: Close
54.55 – FDI approval in Indian retail sector was too much for the market to
rally despite of improving US employment figures.
07 Dec: Close
54.97 – Improvement in the U.S job markets farm and non - farm which has given
support to their currency.
2nd Week, December 2012
10 Dec: Indian
markets will remain in bullish trend in the coming year hence going short in
USDINR on rise can be the strategy for the coming year.....
11 Dec: U.S
fiscal cliff will remain a major problem for the government which can transfer
weakness to their currency as well. USDINR is expected to break the level of
54…….
12 Dec: 12 and
13 December can be the volatility day of the month as U.S and India will come
out with major events hence buy OTM call and put can be the strategy of the
week.......
13 Dec: India
is coming out with Industrial figures. FOMC meet and budget balance can be the
market driver .....
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