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WELCOME

Tuesday, 22 January 2013

TECHNICAL CURRENCY VIEW

Currency Headlines
Yen Gains From 2 1/2-Year Low as Stocks Drop
The yen strengthened from its weakest level against the dollar since June 2010 as Bank of Japan (8301) officials started a two-day policy meeting.


Japan’s currency has declined 5.9 percent versus the greenback in the past month on speculation the BOJ, under pressure from the government of new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will boost stimulus to lift the economy out of recession. Technical indicators signaled the yen’s drop may have been overdone and data showed traders became the least bearish on the currency in eight weeks. The Swiss franc advanced versus all but one of its 16 major peers.


“It’s hard to see what the BOJ could say tomorrow that would exceed market expectations,” said Daragh Maher, a currency strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. “It’s a natural positioning ahead of the Bank of Japan’s meeting given the yen decline.”
The yen appreciated 0.7 percent to 89.51 per dollar at 6:43 a.m. New York time after depreciating to 90.25, the weakest since June 23, 2010. Japan’s currency gained 0.8 percent to 119.07 per euro. The dollar was little changed at $1.3302 per euro and the franc advanced 0.4 percent to 1.2398 per euro.


Pound Little Changed Versus Dollar as House Prices Rise
The pound snapped a three-day decline versus the euro after a report showed U.K. house prices rose for the first time in three months in January.
Sterling was little changed against the dollar, halting a six-day slide, before a report this week that analysts said will show the U.K. economy contracted in the fourth quarter of last year, tipping it back toward recession. Rightmove Plc said asking prices advanced 0.2 percent this month after dropping 3.3 percent in December. Gilts fell before the Debt Management Office sells 1.75 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) of 4 percent bonds due 2022 tomorrow.


“We’re seeing a bit of respite for the pound today,” said Melinda Burgess, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “Although we still see weak fundamentals for sterling, we do think it will perform slightly better than the euro.”
The pound rose 0.1 percent to 83.83 pence per euro at 10:09 a.m. London time, after falling to 84.07 pence, the weakest since March 13. Sterling traded at $1.5882 after dropping to $1.5838, the lowest since Nov. 16.


TECHNICAL INSIGHT
USD INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
The pair witnesses selling pressure on rise. Thus it is prudent to Sell on Rise.
Sell 54.02 SL 54.20 TGT 53.88/53.55


EUR INR (Jan 13– Expiry)
EURUSD has shown early signs of weakness. Given weakness in USDINR, EURINR can also be Sold on rise.
Sell 71.98 SL 72.12 TGT 71.7/71.4


GBP INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
GBPINR is in weak trend. Let the initial dust get settle, then initiate any trade.


JPY INR (Jan 13 – Expiry)
JPYINR remains the weakest of 4 pairs. But given the very High “Beta” and it has gap Up OR Gap Down opening. Its moves are directly impacted by USDINR trend

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